Vortrag
Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

Tony Muhumuza, Carlos Bozzoli, Tilman Brück


Rebuilding Agricultural Livelihoods in Northern Uganda, 2010
Kampala, Uganda, 24.03.2010



Abstract:
We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Abstract

We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.



JEL-Classification: D84;H56;O10
Keywords: Conflict, expectations, war, welfare
DIW-Link
Array

keyboard_arrow_up