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DIW Discussion Papers 315 / 2002
Using time-series cross-section data from the manufacturing sector of the 11West German 'Bundesl ¨ander' (Federal States) from 1970 to 1996, I examine the impact of public capital on private production. My econometric analysis explicitly takes into account four of the most frequent specification issues in the context of time-series cross-section data analysis: serial correlation, groupwise heteroscedasticity, ...
2002| Andreas Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 314 / 2002
Using a binary reference series based on the dating procedure of Artis, Kontolemis and Osborn (1997) different procedures for predicting turning points of the German business cycles were tested. Specifically, a probit model as proposed by Estrella and Mishkin (1997) as well as Markov-switching models were taken into consideration. The overall results indicate that the interest rate spread, the longterm ...
2002| Ulrich Fritsche, Vladimir Kuzin
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DIW Discussion Papers 313 / 2002
This paper analyses how international outsourcing has affected the relative demand for low skilled workers in Germany during the 1990s. In contrast to previous empirical work, the single elements of the input-output-matrix are used to disentangle international outsourcing and trade in final goods more accurately. The main finding is that during the 1990s international outsourcing had a significant ...
2002| Ingo Geishecker
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DIW Discussion Papers 312 / 2002
The German unemployment rate shows strong signs if non-stationarity over the course of the previous decades. This is in line with an insider-outsider model under full hysteresis. We applied a "theory-guided view" to the data using the structural VAR model as developed by Balmaseda, Dolado and López-Salido (2000) allowing for full hysteresis on the labour market. Our identification of the model implies ...
2002| Ulrich Fritsche, Camille Logeay
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DIW Discussion Papers 311 / 2002
We propose a framework for comparing the relationship between poverty and personal characteristics across countries (or across years), and use it to compare levels and patterns of relative poverty in the USA, Great Britain and Germany during the 1990s. The higher aggregate poverty rates in the USA and in Britain relative to Germany were mostly accounted for by higher poverty rates conditional on characteristics, ...
2002| Martin Biewen, Stephen P. Jenkins
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DIW Discussion Papers 310 / 2002
This paper generalizes the analysis of distributive conflict, politics, and growth developed by by Alesina-Rodrik (1994). We construct a heterogenous-agent framework in which both growth and the distribution of wealth are endogenous. Due to adjustments in the distribution of wealth, the composition of factor ownership across households equalizes in the long run. This implies that the optimal tax rate ...
2002| Satya Das, Chetan Ghate
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DIW Discussion Papers 309 / 2002
Using firm-level panel data from the German cost structure survey over the period 1992 to 2000, our empirical analysis shows that firms that increased material inputs relative to internal labor costs performed better in terms of gross operating surplus than other firms. However, firms that increased external services relative to internal labor costs, thus outsourcing service functions previously provided ...
2002| Bernd Görzig, Andreas Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 308 / 2002
We present a model of optimal government policy when policy choices may exacerbate socio-political instability (SPI). We show that optimal policy that takes into account SPI transforms a standard concave growth model into a model with both a poverty trap and endogenous growth. The resulting equilibrium dynamics inherit the properties of government policies and need not be monotone. Indeed, for a broad ...
2002| Chetan Ghate, Quan Vu Le, Paul J. Zak
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DIW Discussion Papers 307 / 2002
This paper is an attempt to provide evidence on two questions: Why do companies sponsor art events, and where exactly does the money go? We analyse data collected on the revenue structure of cultural institutions in Berlin and Hamburg. This data set not only tells us where the money goes, it also allows us to draw conclusions with respect to donors' motives. We regress sponsorships received on the ...
2002| Björn Frank, Kurt Geppert
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DIW Discussion Papers 306 / 2002
After the collapse in the early years of transition, saving rates in many EU-accession countries have recovered and remained stable during recent years. This may indicate that the transformation process has come to an end with regard to savings. Is saving behaviour in EU-accession countries now driven by the same forces as it is in market economies? We use a panel data set covering the years 1990 to ...
2002| Mechthild Schrooten, Sabine Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 305 / 2002
We use data from the 1996 wave of the European Community Household Panel to present and compare the weekly number of hours mothers of children less than 16 years of age reported looking after children in nine European countries in 1996. In addition, we explore to what extent cross-country differences in socio-demographic characteristics and parents' employment status contribute to differences in maternal ...
2002| Jutta M. Joesch, C. Katharina Spiess
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DIW Discussion Papers 304 / 2002
This study argues that the political considerations were an important factor behind the crisis of the Brazilian real in January 1999. The divided coalition government and a president facing impending elections eschewed the correction of external misalignments and the fiscal austerity at a time when the markets were already excited by the 1997-98 East Asian and 1998 Russian financial crises. The hypothesis ...
2002| Omar F. Saqib
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DIW Discussion Papers 303 / 2002
The main objective of this paper is to understand the causes and symptoms of currency crises by reviewing its seminal literature, establishing its determinants, and outlining some of the relevant issues. The paper highlights the need to comprehend the process, which may lead to the inconsistency of the policies and render the situation favourable for a speculative attack. This involves, broadening ...
2002| Omar F. Saqib
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DIW Discussion Papers 302 / 2002
In the expected-utility theory of the monetary value of a statistical life, the so-called "dead-anyway" effect discovered by Pratt and Zeckhauser (1996) asserts that an individuals' willingness to pay (WTP) for small reductions in mortality risk increases with the initial level of risk. Their reasoning is based on differences in the marginal utility of wealth between the two states of nature: life ...
2002| Friedrich Breyer, Stefan Felder
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DIW Discussion Papers 301 / 2002
Becker and Murphy (1988) constructed, in a well-known paper, a model of rational addiction in which people solve a dynamic optimization problem, choose an optimal timepath of drug consumption and thereby maximize lifetime utility. The model leads to the hypothesis that future consumption is a significant explanatory variable for present consumption. This paper briefly surveys the empirical studies ...
2002| Björn Frank
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DIW Discussion Papers 300 / 2002
A new method for constructing R&D capital stocks is proposed. Following Schumpeter, the development of R&D capital stocks is modelled as a process of creative destruction. Newly generated knowledge is assumed not only to add to the existing R&D capital stocks but also, by displacing old knowledge, to destroy part of that capital. This is in stark contrast to the perpetual inventory method, which postulates ...
2002| Jürgen Bitzer, Andreas Stephan
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DIW Discussion Papers 299 / 2002
Many validation studies deal with item-nonresponse and measurement error in earnings data. In this paper we explore motives of respondents for the failure to reveal earnings using the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). GSOEP collects socio-economic information of private households in the Federal Republic of Germany. We explain the evolution of income-nonresponse in the GSOEP and demonstrate the ...
2002| Jörg-Peter Schräpler
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DIW Discussion Papers 298 / 2002
We consider a model of an information network where nodes can fail and transmission of information is costly. The formation of paths in such networks is modeled as the Nash equilibrium of an N player routing game. The task of obtaining this equilibrium is shown to be NP-Hard. We derive analytical results to identify conditions under which the equilibrium path is congruent to well known paths such as ...
2002| Rajgopal Kannan, Sudipta Sarangi, S. S. Iyengar
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DIW Discussion Papers 297 / 2002
This paper shows that stricter enforcement may increase tax evasion. Individuals vote on a linear income tax which is used to finance lump sum transfers. Stricter enforcement may make redistributive taxation more attractive to the decisive voter. The tax rate and transfer may rise which in turn may increase tax evasion. An example shows that this result can actually occur. The paper also discusses ...
2002| Rainald Borck
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DIW Discussion Papers 296 / 2002
Open source software (OSS) is a public good. A self-interested individual would consider providing such software, if the benefits he gained from having it justified the cost of programming. Nevertheless each agent is tempted to free ride and wait for others to develop the software instead. This problem is modelled as a war of attrition with complete information, job signaling, repeated contribution ...
2002| Jürgen Bitzer, Philipp J. H. Schröder