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DIW Discussion Papers 355 / 2003
Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth. We focus on five countries (the US, West Germany, Denmark, Italy, ...
2003| Thomas A. DiPrete, S. Philip Morgan, Henriette Engelhardt, Hana Pacalova
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DIW Discussion Papers 354 / 2003
This paper sets up a two country monopolistic competition model with intra-industry trade to study the effects of an exogenous differential in wage and social policies on the location of industry. Two model scenarios are considered. In the traditional one with physical capital, such a differential induces a relocation effect which increases with the level of trade integration. The 'new economic geography' ...
2003| Michael Pflüger
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DIW Discussion Papers 353 / 2003
bilateral trade flows between more than 200 countries over the period from 1960 to 1993. Applying an augmented gravity model that includes several measures of terrorism and largescale violence, we find compelling evidence that terrorist actions reduce the volume of trade; a doubling in the number of terrorist incidents is associated with a decrease in bilateral trade by about 4 percent.
2003| Volker Nitsch, Dieter Schumacher
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DIW Discussion Papers 352 / 2003
The purpose of this paper is to obtain by combining two longitudinal perspectives a more detailed national picture of poverty in the Member States of the European Union, using the _rst four waves (1994 - 1997) of the European Community Household Panel (ECHP). In addition to this detailed consideration of the time dimension, poverty incidence, poverty gap and poverty intensity are measured. Overall, ...
2003| Birgit Kuchler, Jan Goebel
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DIW Discussion Papers 351 / 2003
This paper analyses the Nairu in the Euro Area and the influence that monetary policy had on its development. Using the Kalman-filter technique we find that the Nairu has varied considerably since the early seventies. The Kalman-filter technique is applied here for the first time using explicit exogenous variables. In particular real interest rates were found to explain a quarter of the increase in ...
2003| Camille Logeay, Silke Tober
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DIW Discussion Papers 350 / 2003
Based on a multiple spells approach, this paper studies the extent and the composition of chronic poverty in Germany. The results indicate that about one third of cross-sectional poverty in a given year is chronic. The characteristics that are most closely associated with long-term poverty are economic inactivity and pensioner status, while the number of children and the gender of the household head ...
2003| Martin Biewen
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DIW Discussion Papers 349 / 2003
Environmental taxation very often comprises special provisions for parts of the business sector in order to attenuate effects on competitiveness of emissionintensive activities. This paper discusses motives, alternative designs and criteria for the evaluation of such safeguards and analyzes if such provisions can reconcile environmental and economicobjectives. It looks at theoretical aspects as well ...
2003| Michael Kohlhaas
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DIW Discussion Papers 348 / 2003
Despite the fact that Argentina has been suffering from a recession for years, the timing and severity of the recent currency crisis surprised most observers. This paper analyzes the role of fundamentals and self-fulfilling speculation in the Argentinean crisis. Arguing within a theoretical model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria, we show that the crisis, while being ...
2003| Patricia Alvarez-Plata, Mechthild Schrooten
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DIW Discussion Papers 347 / 2003
Emerging nations are typically characterized by high energy intensities despite significant energy efficiency potentials and numerous project oriented efforts to introduce energy-efficient technologies. The paper argues that successful technology dissemination needs appropriate institutional structures to reduce the related transaction cost. While a project-by-project approach risks to evaporate after ...
2003| Barbara Praetorius, Jan W. Bleyl
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DIW Discussion Papers 346 / 2003
The paper analyzes factors that influence the adoption of e-learning and gives an example of how to forecast technology adoption based on a post-hoc predictive segmentation using a classification and regression tree (CART). We find strong evidence for the existence of technological interdependencies and organizational learning effects. Furthermore, we find different paths to elearning adoption. The ...
2003| Philipp Köllinger, Christian Schade
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DIW Discussion Papers 345 / 2003
Applying a method suggested by Woodruff (1971), we derive the sampling variances of Generalized Entropy and Atkinson inequality indices when estimated from complex survey data. It turns out that this method also greatly simplifies the calculations for the i.i.d. case when compared to previous derivations in the literature. Both cases are illustrated with examples from the German Socio-Economic Panel ...
2003| Martin Biewen, Stephen P. Jenkins
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DIW Discussion Papers 344 / 2003
Policy makers in "small" countries facing trade liberalisation have become concerned with the potential loss of manufacturing employment and output to "large" economies in the presence of economies of scale in production and international transport costs. This paper offers a methodology to estimate the "home market" effect for numerous industries, after accounting for transport costs and traditional ...
2003| Dieter Schumacher
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DIW Discussion Papers 343 / 2003
The United States has a teenage birth rate that is high relative to that of other developed countries, and falling more slowly. Children of teenagers may experience difficult childhoods and hence be more likely to commit crimes subsequently. I assess to what extent lagged teen birth rates can explain why the United States had the highest developed country crime rates in the 1980s, and why US rates ...
2003| Jennifer Hunt
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DIW Discussion Papers 342 / 2003
This paper discusses the eastward enlargement process of the EU in the framework of a simple war of attrition bargaining game. Both players - the existing EU members and the applicants - benefit from enlargement, yet for the applicants reform to the acquis is costly, while the EU prefers substantially reformed candidates. A waiting game unfolds. Within this framework the present enlargement round is ...
2003| Herbert Brücker, Philipp J. H. Schröder, Christian Weise
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DIW Discussion Papers 341 / 2003
Environmental policies frequently target the ratio of dirty to green output within the same industry. To achieve such targets the green sector may be subsidised or the dirty sector be taxed. This paper shows that in a monopolistic competition setting the two policy instruments have different welfare effects. For a strong green policy (a severe reduction of the dirty sector) a tax is the dominant instrument. ...
2003| Susanne Dröge, Philipp J. H. Schröder
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DIW Discussion Papers 340 / 2003
Given any income distribution, to each income we associate a subgroup containing all persons whose incomes are not higher than this income and a person's target shortfall in a subgroup is the gap between the subgroup highest income and his own income. We then develop an absolute target shortfall ordering, which, under constancy of population size and total income, implies the Lorenz and Cowell-Ebert ...
2003| Satya R. Chakravarty, Conchita D'Ambrosio, Pietro Muliere
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DIW Discussion Papers 339 / 2003
This paper presents a simple Chamberlinian agglomeration model which, like the canonical core-periphery (CP) model, contains two agglomerative forces. However, in contrast to that model, the present model is analytically solvable. Moreover, the present model exhibits a 'supercritical pitchfork bifurcation' rather than the 'subcritical pitchfork bifurcation' of the CP model. This may be a better description ...
2003| Michael Pflüger
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DIW Discussion Papers 338 / 2003
Untersucht wird der Einfluss des Humankapitals, der Arbeitsmarktlage, der familiären Situation sowie der Persönlichkeitseigenschaften und sozialen Ressourcen auf die individuelle Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer anhand des Sozioökonomischen Panels (SOEP) in West- und Ostdeutschland. Es wird eine unproportionale Cox-Regression mit Interaktionseffekten ausgewählter Prädiktoren mit der Zeit geschätzt. Die Ergebnisse ...
2003| Arne Uhlendorff
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DIW Discussion Papers 337 / 2003
A non-cooperative model of network formation is developed. Agents form links with others based on the cost of the link and its assessed benefit. Link formation is one-sided, i.e., agents can initiate links with other agents with- out their consent, provided the agent forming the link makes the appropriate investment. Information flw is two-way. The model builds on the work of Bala and Goyal, but allows ...
2003| Hans Haller, Sudipta Sarangi
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DIW Discussion Papers 336 / 2003
The paper explores theoretically and empirically why trade intermediaries (TIs) are frequently used as agents for exports to some countries but not to others. We adapt a standard intra-industry trade model with variable export costs (e.g. transport) and fixed export costs (e.g. market access) to include a TI that is able to pool market access cost. From this framework explanatory factors for the TI ...
2003| Philipp J. H. Schröder, Harald Trabold, Parvati Trübswetter