Diskussionspapiere

Evaluation of a Pseudo-R2 Measure for Panel Probit Models

A simulation study designed to evaluate the pseudo-R2 T proposed by Spiess and Keller (1999) suggests that this measure represents the goodness- of-fit not only of the systematic part, but also of the assumed correlation structure in binary panel probit models.

Do Current Income and Annual Income Measures Provide Different Pictures of Britain's Income Distribution?

Most UK surveys, including those used each year to derive the official UK income distribution statistics ('Households Below Average Income'), provide measures of current household income rather than annual household income, which is the measure used in most other countries. Using British Household Panel Survey data, we examine whether estimates of Britain's income distribution and its trends are sensitive ...

Measuring Income Risk

We provide a critique of the methods that have been used to derive measures of income risk and draw attention to the importance of demographic factors as a source of income risk. We also propose new measures of the contribution to total income risk of demographic and labour market factors. Empirical evidence supporting our arguments is provided using data from the British Household Survey.

Möglichkeiten zur Modellierung hoher Einkommen auf Grundlage der Einkommensteuerstatistik

Haushaltsstichproben wie die EVS spiegeln die Randbereiche der Verteilung nur unzureichend. Um die oberen Einkommensbereiche besser abzubilden, bietet sich eine Analyse der Einkommensteuerstatistik an, in der die "reichen" Haushalte bzw. Personen vollständig sind. Einkommenskonzept und Einkommensdaten erfordern Anpassungen, die allerdings nur in begrenztem Umfang möglich sind. Für Analysen der Einkommensverteilung ...

Social Security Privatization and Financial Market Risk: Lessons from U.S. Financial History

A popular proposal for reforming social security is to supplement or replace traditional publicly financed benefits with a new system of mandatory defined-contribution private pensions. Proponents claim that private plans offer better returns than traditional social security. To achieve higher returns, however, contributors are exposed to extra risks associated with financial market fluctuations. This ...

Take It or Leave It: (Non-) Take-up Behavior of Social Assistance in Germany

Basierend auf den Mikro-Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels untersuchen wir Determinanten der Nichtinanspruchnahme von Sozialhilfe in Deutschland. Die Schätzung einer Nichtinanspruchnahmequote ("Dunkelziffer") von über 60 Prozent zeigt deutliche Unterschiede für verschiedene Bevölkerungsgruppen und zudem signifikante Einflü e von Indikatoren zur Messung von Stigma, Kosten der Antragstellung und sozialen ...

Globalisierung, Wettbewerb und Bildungspolitik

"Wettbewerb" und "Bildungspolitik" stehen in zweifacher Hinsicht im Zusammenhang: Erstens erfordert der internationale Wettbewerb den Erhalt und Ausbau des deutschen Humankapitalbestands. Damit dabei die Ressourcen effizient eingesetzt werden, ist es zweitens notwendig, mehr Wettbewerbselemente in das Bildungssystem einzuführen. Im Schulwesen spricht dies für eine Stärkung der Autonomie der Schulen ...

Russia's Debt Crisis and the Unofficial Economy

Russia's foreign debt problems worsened substantially after the financial crisis of 1998. The paper focuses on the key role of the government in servicing foreign debt and promoting institution building by showing how foreign debt influences the choice between official and unofficial taxation. The enterprise sector is assumed to reallocate its resources between domestic investment and capital flight. ...

Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties

Brauchbare Frühindikatoren sollten folgende Eigenschaften besitzen: (1) Die konjunkturellen Bewegungen des Frühindikators sollten denen der Referenzreihe folgen. (2) Die Beziehung zwischen den Reihen sollte stabil und signifikant sein. (3) Die Einbeziehung des Indikators sollte die Out-of-sample-Prognose verbessern. Unsere Untersuchung testet diese Anforderungen für deutsche Daten. Dazu werden Methoden ...

Methodische und empirische Grundlagen der vierteljährlichen volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung des Deutschen Instituts für Wirtschaftsforschung

Die vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnung (VGR) ist das wichtigste Analyse- und Prognose-Instrument des Konjunkturforschers. Das DIW stellt dafür schon seit vielen Jahren - in Ergänzung zu den Daten des Statistischen Bundesamtes (StaBu) - ein geschlossenes Kreislaufsystem zur Beobachtung von Entstehung, Verteilung, Verwendung und Umverteilung des gesamtwirtschaftlichen Einkommens (des ...

Health Care Reform: Separating Insurance from Income Redistribution

Most systems of health care financing in EU member states currently include elements of income redistribution. The paper analyzes the effects of shifting this kind of redistribution to the tax system and argues that this reform could create two types of efficiency gains. On the expenditure side, it would facilitate the adoption of more incentive-compatible insurance contracts, for example through the ...

Money Demand in Europe: Evidence from the Past

The conditions under which European monetary policy is likely to be conducted are investigated by means of multi-variate time series modelling using aggregated data of all eleven European Monetary Union member states. A cointegration analysis identifies two stable long-run relationships within a set of five key macroeconomic variables, one of which can be interpreted as a money demand function and ...

Self-Rated Health and Changes in Self-Rated Health as Predictors of Mortality: First Evidence from German Panel Data

Empirical evidence from several countries reveals that self-rated health is a valid predictor of mortality. So far, there have been no studies conducted for Germany. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (GSOEP) we confirm the relationship between self-rated health and mortality for Germany. In addition the GSOEP data enable an exploration of the trajectory hypothesis.

Demographic Change, Endogenous Labor Supply and the Political Feasibility of Pension Reform

Why Do People Still Live in East Germany?

In 1997 GDP per capita in East Germany was 57% of that of West Germany, wage rates were 75% of western levels, and the unemployment rate was at least double the western rate of 7.8%. One would expect that if capital flows and trade in goods failed to bring convergence, labor flows would respond, enhancing overall efficiency. Yet net emigration from East Germany has fallen from high levels in 1989-1990 ...

Reform of the Public Pension System in Germany

This paper studies the current crisis in the German pension system and discusses the various reform proposals.

Die Zusammenarbeit von Staat und Markt in der Sozialpolitik: das Beispiel Betreuungsgutscheine und Qualitätsregulierung für die institutionelle Kinderbetreuung

Combining an Ongoing Panel with a New Cross-Sectional Sample

In this paper, a weight is derived for the calculation of design based estimators of totals, means and proportions using the ongoing German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) and a new cross-sectional sample. In the first part of the paper, the selection schemes of the subsamples A, B, C and D of the ongoing panel and of the new sample (sample E) are described. Using some similarity assumptions and starting ...

Derivation of Design Weights: The Case of the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP)

Design-based estimators of totals, means or proportions in finite populations generally are functions of weighted sums. If each element selected into the sample is also observed, then for the calculation of the pi-estimator these weights are just the inverse inclusion probabilities of the elements. However, if e.g. nonresponse or attrition over time occurs, calculation of these weights also includes ...

Documentation of Sample Sizes and Panel Attrition in the German Socio Economic Panel (GSOEP) 1984 until 1998