-
DIW Discussion Papers 2137 / 2025
This paper investigates the effectiveness of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) communication in shaping market expectations and real economic outcomes. Using a transformer-based large language model (LLM) fine-tuned to ECB communication, the tone of monetary policy statements from 2003 to 2025 is classified, constructing a novel ECB Communication Stance Indicator. This indicator contains forward-looking ...
2025| Kerstin Bernoth
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2136 / 2025
This paper shows that in an economy where distortions prevent firms from using their profit-maximizing amounts of capital and labor, removing these distortions can generate both an efficiency gain and a higher aggregate labor share. We use firm-level data on Chinese manufacturing, mining, and public utilities in 2005 and estimate a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous productivity, technology, ...
2025| Xiaoyue Zhang, Junjie Xia
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2135 / 2025
Commitment to gender equality and diversity has long been a stated priority for large companies, and one visible way to signal this commitment is through gender-inclusive language. Public debates around such language use increasingly surface regarding companies’ communication with stakeholders, including employees, customers, and shareholders. In particular, the adoption of newer forms of gender-inclusive ...
2025| Carolin Müller-Spitzer, Samira Ochs, Virginia Sondergeld, Katharina Wrohlich
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2134 / 2025
While Equity Crowdfunding (ECF) platforms are a virtual space for raising funds, geography remains relevant. To determine how location matters for entrepreneurs using equity crowdfunding (ECF), we analyze the spatial distribution of successful ECF campaigns and the spatial relationship between ECF campaigns and traditional investors, such as banks and venture capitalists (VCs). Using data from the ...
2025| Torben Klarl, Alexander S. Kritikos, Knarik Poghosyan
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2133 / 2025
Carbon pricing policies are usually combined with compensation for exposed firms to prevent adverse competitiveness effects. In cap-and-trade systems, this carbon cost compensation mostly occurs through free allocation of emission permits. Using an administrative panel of German manufacturing firms, this paper investigates how free allocation in the European Union Emissions Trading System affects firms’ ...
2025| Till Köveker, Robin Sogalla
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2132 / 2025
Attitudes toward fiscal policy differ: fiscal conservatism and fiscal liberalism vary in their willingness to tolerate budget deficits. We challenge the view that such attitudes reflect national preferences. Instead, we offer an economic explanation based on a two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model, bringing its implicit political economy dimension to the forefront. We compute the welfare ...
2025| Christian Bayer, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Fabian Seyrich
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2131 / 2025
Competition authorities increasingly rely on economic screening tools to identify markets where firms deviate from competitive norms. Traditional screening methods assume that collusion occurs through secret agreements. However, recent research highlights that firms can use public announcements to coordinate decisions, reducing competition while avoiding detection. We propose a novel approach to screening ...
2025| Tomaso Duso, Joseph E. Harrington Jr., Carl Kreuzberg, Geza Sapi
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2130 / 2025
Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual growth rates over the next 10 years, or they predict the total, cumulative growth that occurs over the 10-year ...
2025| Peter Haan, Chen Sun, Felix Weinhardt, Georg Weizsäcker
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2129 / 2025
Mental health and wellbeing are unequally distributed in high-income countries, disadvantaging low-income individuals. Unconditional, regular, and guaranteed cash transfers may help address this inequality by promoting financial security and agency. We conducted a preregistered RCT in Germany, where treated participants received monthly payments of EUR 1,200 for three years. Cash transfers improve ...
2025| Sandra Bohmann, Susann Fiedler, Maximilian Kasy, Jürgen Schupp, Frederik Schwerter
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2128 / 2025
This paper provides empirical evidence on which M&A deals spur innovation, and which stifle it. To do so, we consider not only the product market position of the acquiring firm, but also the position of both target and acquirer in the technology space. Focusing on the antidiabetic drugs market, our dataset tracks the lifecycle and patenting of all individual antidiabetic projects in development between ...
2025| Jan Malek, Jo Seldeslachts, Reinhilde Veugelers
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2127 / 2025
To ensure security of supply in the power sector, many countries are already using or discussing the introduction of capacity mechanisms. Two main types of such mechanisms include capacity markets and capacity reserves. Simultaneously, the expansion of variable renewable energy sources increases the need for power sector flexibility, for which there are promising yet often under-utilized options on ...
2025| Franziska Klaucke, Karsten Neuhoff, Alexander Roth, Wolf-Peter Schill, Leon Stolle
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2126 / 2025
This paper revisits the exporter’s environmental premium (EEP) by incorporating emissions embodied in domestically and internationally sourced intermediate inputs. Combining administrative firm-level data and customs records for German manufacturers with an environmentally extended input-output table and fuel specific emission factors, we document three stylized facts: (i) embodied emissions account ...
2025| Till Köveker, Philipp M. Richter, Alexander Schiersch, Robin Sogalla
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2125 / 2025
This paper examines the gendered impact of divorce on earnings and the role of the social policy context in shaping this relationship. In particular, it focuses on a policy reform enacted in Germany in 2008 that overturned previous ex-spousal support rules. Data come from the administrative records of the German Public Pension Fund. Drawing on a fixed- effects model, we study the behaviour of women ...
2025| Michaela Kreyenfeld, Sarah Schmauk, Katharina Wrohlich, Daniel Brüggmann
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2124 / 2025
This paper provides a systematic analysis of peoples’ decision to purchase the Deutschlandticket, identifying primary customer groups and the role of public transport irregularities such as delays and cancellations. It builds on a panel dataset covering survey answers from almost 3000 participants between March and December 2023 and applies a series of binary logit models. The results confirm that ...
2025| Dennis Gaus, Heike Link
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2123 / 2025
How does basic income (a regular, unconditional, guaranteed cash transfer) impact labor supply? We show that in search models of the labor market with income effects, this impact is theoretically ambiguous: Employment and job durations might increase or decrease, match surplus might be shifted to workers or employers, and worker surplus might be reallocated between wages and job amenities. We thus ...
2025| Sarah Bernhard, Sandra Bohmann, Susann Fiedler, Maximilian Kasy, Jürgen Schupp, Frederik Schwerter
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2122 / 2025
The Deutschlandticket, introduced in May 2023, offers unlimited travel on all regional public transport in Germany for 49€ per month. This paper provides an overview of how the intro-duction of the ticket influenced travel behaviour and mode choice based on the GIM Traces panel, a nationwide representative dataset combining GPS tracking data and survey re-sponses. The data, consisting of almost 4 million ...
2025| Dennis Gaus, Heike Link
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2121 / 2025
This study examines how policies affecting the cost of using fossil fuels in production influence comparative advantage in the industrial sector. Firstly, we use a fixed-effects gravity model to estimate the export capabilities that determine comparative advantage. Subsequently, using data on direct (carbon taxes, ETS permit prices) and indirect (fossil fuel excise taxes and subsidies) carbon pricing ...
2025| Antonia Kurz, Stela Rubínová
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2120 / 2025
This paper provides causal evidence on the effect of credit crunches on political polarisation. Combining data on bank-firm connections and electoral outcomes at the city-level during the 2008-2014 Spanish financial crisis, I construct an instrument for unemployment based on the city-level exposure to (foreign) weak banks. I find that a 10% increase in (instrumented) local unemployment rates leads ...
2025| Pia Hüttl
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2119 / 2025
The energy crisis following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed the heightened vulnerability of low-income households to rising heating costs, particularly those in energy inefficient buildings. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), this study examines the distributional impact of heating costs across income deciles and evaluates the effectiveness of policy interventions. We find ...
2025| Sophie M. Behr, Merve Kucuk, Maximilian Longmuir, Karsten Neuhoff
-
DIW Discussion Papers 2118 / 2025
We examine the impact of the war in Ukraine on long-term contracts in energy markets. We find that traded contract volumes fall by 65 percent in the first months of the war. A collapse in bilateral trading contributes most to this decline. To protect themselves from price shocks, firms increasingly turned to long-term contracts already before the war. In sum, our results show that the market continued ...
2025| Mats Kröger, Karsten Neuhoff, Sebastian Schwenen