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Diskussionspapiere 2075 / 2024
Financial repression lowers the return on government debt and contributes, all else equal, towards its liquidation. However, its full effect on the debt-to-GDP ratio hinges on how repression impacts the economy at large because it alters investment and saving decisions. We develop and estimate a New Keynesian model with financial repression. Based on U.S. data for the period 1948–1974, we find, consistent ...
2024| Martin Kliem, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Alexander Scheer
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Diskussionspapiere 2074 / 2024
This paper re-evaluates the US external deficit which has considerably widened over the 1990s. US safe asset provision to the rest of the world is the dominant explanation for the persistent nature of the US external deficit. We suggest that apart from the safe asset hypothesis, there is an important role for technology shocks originating in US multinational companies that have a strong foreign direct ...
2024| Kaan Celebi, Werner Roeger, Paul J. J. Welfens
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Diskussionspapiere 2073 / 2024
This paper analyzes M&A patterns of R&D projects in the antidiabetics industry. For this purpose, we construct a database with all corporate individual antidiabetics R&D projects over the period 1997 - 2017, and add detailed information on firms’ technology dimension using patent information, next to their position in product markets. This allows us to identify the identity of targets and acquirers ...
2024| Jan Malek, Melissa Newham, Jo Seldeslachts, Reinhilde Veugelers
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Diskussionspapiere 2072 / 2024
We estimate the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty in the United States, combining theory-consistent and narrative sign restrictions on Bayesian SVARs. We find mostly adverse consequences of protectionism. Tariff shocks are more important than trade policy uncertainty shocks. Tariff shocks depress trade, investment, and output persistently, in aggregate and across ...
2024| Lukas Boer, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2071 / 2024
Our article investigates the impact of vertical integration (without foreclosure) on innovation. We compare cases where either (i) two manufacturers or (ii) a manufacturer and a vertically integrated retailer invest. Then, the independent manufacturer( s) and the retailer bargain over non-linear contracts before selling to consumers. We show that vertical integration always increases the incentives ...
2024| Claire Chambolle, Morgane Guignard
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Diskussionspapiere 2070 / 2024
This paper examines the effect of increasing foreign staffing on the labor market outcomes of native workers in the German long-term care sector. Using administrative social security data covering the universe of long-term care workers and policy-induced exogenous variation, we find that increased foreign staffing reduces labor shortages but has diverging implications for the careers of native workers ...
2024| Peter Haan, Izabela Wnuk
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Diskussionspapiere 2069 / 2024
We investigate policies for increasing recycling to facilitate decarbonization within the basic material sector, including market-based policies, such as carbon pricing, advanced disposal fee and minimum recycled content requirement, and non-market policies, such as product design standard. We develop an analytical model to assess the role of these policy instruments for recycling related choices of ...
2024| Xi Sun, Karsten Neuhoff
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Diskussionspapiere 2068 / 2024
This study provides the first absolute income mobility estimates for postwar Germany. Using various micro data sources, we uncover a steep decline in absolute mobility rates from 81 percent to 59 percent for children’s birth cohorts 1962 through 1988. This trend is robust across different ages, family sizes, measurement methods, copulas, and data sources. Across the parental income distribution, we ...
2024| Timm Bönke, Astrid Harnack-Eber, Holger Lüthen
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Diskussionspapiere 2067 / 2024
Entrepreneurs tend to be risk tolerant but is more risk tolerance always better? In a sample of about 2,100 small businesses, we find an inverted U-shaped relation between risk tolerance and profitability. This relationship holds in a simple bilateral regression and also when we control for a large set of individual and business characteristics. Apparently, one major transmission goes from risk tolerance ...
2024| Melanie Koch, Lukas Menkhoff
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Diskussionspapiere 2066 / 2023
Who makes it to the top? We use the leading, socio-economic survey in Germany supplemented by extensive data on the rich to answer this question. We identify the key predictors for belonging to the top 1 percent of income, wealth, and both distributions jointly. Although we consider many, only a few traits matter: Entrepreneurship and self-employment in conjunction with a sizable inheritance of company ...
2023| Johannes König, Christian Schluter, Carsten Schröder
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Diskussionspapiere 2065 / 2023
This paper examines whether biased income expectations due to overconfidence lead to higher levels of debt-taking. We show suggestive evidence for a link between overconfidence and borrowing behavior in a representative survey of German households (GSOEP-IS). This motivates a laboratory experiment to study causality behind these effects. In two experiments, participants can purchase goods by borrowing ...
2023| Antonia Grohmann, Lukas Menkhoff, Christoph Merkle, Renke Schmacker
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Diskussionspapiere 2064 / 2023
Financing entrepreneurship spurs innovation and economic growth. Digital financial platforms that crowdfund equity for entrepreneurs have emerged globally, yet they remain poorly understood. We model equity crowdfunding in terms of the relationship between the number of investors and the amount of money raised per pitch. We examine heterogeneity in the average amount raised per pitch that is associated ...
2023| Saul Estrin, Susanna Khavul, Alexander S. Kritikos, Jonas Löher
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Diskussionspapiere 2063 / 2023
We study the role of international financial integration in buffering natural disaster shocks, using a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. Conditioning on such exogenous events addresses the endogeneity between financial structures and economic conditions. We document that integration improves shock absorption: output, consumption, and investment are significantly higher after a shock ...
2023| Franziska Bremus, Malte Rieth
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Diskussionspapiere 2062 / 2023
This paper investigates the implications of implementing the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) in South Africa by exploring the factors that are at work when donors and recipients interact with each other. It analyses the JETP using global cooperation theories on climate change and identify mutual trust, based on shared norms; and process legitimacy via institutionalisation as the factors which ...
2023| Heiner von Lüpke
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Diskussionspapiere 2061 / 2023
Housing bubbles and crashes are catastrophic events for economies, implying enormous destruction of housing wealth, financial default risks, construction unemployment, and business cycle downturns. This paper investigates whether governmental housing policies can affect economies’ propensity to build up speculative house price bubbles. Specifically, we focus on the liberalization effects of rent and ...
2023| Konstantin A. Kholodilin, Sebastian Kohl, Florian Müller
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Diskussionspapiere 2060 / 2023
Several empirical studies document the relevance of firm heterogeneity to assess the effect of trade and environmental policy. This paper develops a multi-country and -sector general equilibrium trade model with heterogeneous firms and analyzes the effect of domestic carbon pricing as well as carbon border adjustments. In the presence of heterogeneous firms, these unilateral carbon pricing tools affect ...
2023| Robin Sogalla
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Diskussionspapiere 2059 / 2023
In contemporary households, women often shoulder most organisation and caregiving responsibilities leading them to play a crucial role in family dynamics. While previous research has established that public early childcare affects child outcomes and maternal employment, less attention has been given to its effects on maternal health despite its relevance within the household. This study investigates ...
2023| Mara Barschkett, Laia Bosque-Mercader
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Diskussionspapiere 2058 / 2023
We develop a two-country business-cycle model of the US and the rest of the world with dollar dominance in trade invoicing, in cross-border credit, and in safe assets. The interplay between these elements—dollar trinity—rationalizes salient features of the Global Financial Cycle in the data: When its tide subsides, the dollar appreciates, financial conditions tighten, the world business cycle slows ...
2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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Diskussionspapiere 2057 / 2023
The dollar is a safe-haven currency and appreciates when global risk goes up. We investigate the dollar’s role for the transmission of global risk to the world economy within a Bayesian proxy structural vectorautoregressive model. We identify global risk shocks using high-frequency asset-price surprises around narratively selected events. Global risk shocks appreciate the dollar, induce tighter global ...
2023| Georgios Georgiadis, Gernot J. Müller, Ben Schumann
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Diskussionspapiere 2056 / 2023
The distributional and disruptive effects of energy supply shocks are potentially large. We study the effectiveness of alternative fiscal responses in a two-country HANK model that we calibrate to the euro area. Energy subsidies can stabilize the domestic economy, but are fiscally costly and generate adverse spillovers to the rest of the monetary union: What the subsidizing country gains, the other ...
2023| Christian Bayer, Alexander Kriwoluzky, Gernot J. Müller, Fabian Seyrich