The aim of the project is to develop early warning systems for banking and sovereign debt crises. On the one hand, the project uses Bayesian model averaging methods. One the other hand, it draws on dynamic factor models.
In dem Projekt wird untersucht, inwieweit sich die Kreditvergabe der Banken seit der Finanzkrise verändert hat und welche Faktoren dabei eine Rolle spielen. Ein Fokus der Analyse besteht in den Auswirkungen der unkonventionellen Geldpolitik auf das Kreditvergabeverhalten und die Profitabilität im Bankensektor.
The project examines the extent to which bank lending has changed since the financial crisis and which factors play a role. One focus of the analysis is the impact of unconventional monetary policy on lending behavior and profitability in the banking sector.
Dieser Beitrag ist am 17. August in der ZEIT ONLINE–Kolumne „Fratzschers Verteilungsfragen“ erschienen. Die Tragödie von Genua hat viele schockiert. Die traurige Wahrheit ist, dass nicht nur in Italien, sondern auch in Deutschland die öffentliche Infrastruktur immer stärker verfällt. In kaum einem westlichen Industrieland investiert der Staat so wenig ...
Dieser gemeinsame Gastbeitrag mit Alexander Kriwoluzky ist am 17. August in der Welt erschienen. Das Versprechen eines Autokraten, die einheimische Währung und Wirtschaft seien sicher, ist häufig das verlässlichste Anzeichen dafür, dass eine Währungs- und Finanzkrise unmittelbar bevorsteht. So war es bei Russlands Boris Jelzin 1998, Indonesiens Suharto 1997, Venezuelas ...
Top income inequality rose sharply in the United States over the last 40 years but increased only slightly in economies like France and Japan. Why? This paper explores a model in which heterogeneous entrepreneurs, broadly interpreted, exert effort to generate exponential growth in their incomes. On its own, this force leads to rising inequality. Creative destruction by outside innovators restrains...
The form of forward guidance matters for its effectiveness in anchoring expectations about the future path of policy rates. We report cross-country evidence about the impact of different types of forward guidance on the reactiveness of markets to macroeconomic news and on disagreement across forecasters, and show that timecontingent forward guidance over a short horizon and open-ended forward...
We investigate the role played by the media in the expectations formation process of households. Using a novel news-topic-based approach we show that the news types the media choose to report on are good predictors of households' stated ination expectations. In turn, in a noisy information model setting, augmented with a simple media channel, we show that the underlying time series properties of...
We assess the empirical validity of the trilemma (or impossible trinity) in the 2000s for a large sample of advanced and emerging economies. To do so, we estimate Taylor-rule type monetary policy reaction functions, relating the local policy rate to real-time forecasts of domestic fundamentals, global variables, as well as the base-country policy rate. In the regressions, we explore variations in...
