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Measuring and Predicting Turning Points Using a Dynamic Bi-Factor Model

In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov-switching is developed to measure and predict turning points. Both common factors, namely composite leading index (CLI) and composite coincident index (CCI) respectively, have their own cyclical dynamics, and their lead-lag relationships are reflected in the transition probabilities matrix. The model is applied to four coincident and four selected ...

Private Savings and Transition: Dynamic Panel Data Evidence from Accession Countries

After the collapse in the early transition years, saving rates in Eastern European EU-accession countries have recovered strongly. But is private saving in these countries now driven by the same forces as in the EU? A GMM estimator is applied to analyze the determinants of private saving in both country groups. The main results are: saving rates are rather persistent; income growth increases saving, ...

How to Turn an Industry Green: Taxes versus Subsidies

Environmental policies frequently target the ratio of dirty to green output within the same industry. To achieve such targets, the green sector may be subsidized or the dirty sector be taxed. We show that in a monopolistic competition setting, the two policy approaches have different welfare effects, depending on the design of the instrument (ad valorem versus unit instrument) and the initial situation ...

Can EU Conditionality Remedy Soft Budget Constraints in Transition Countries?

Soft budget constraints (SBCs) are a persistent feature of transition economies and have been blamed for a lack of fiscal consolidation and sluggish growth. EU eastward enlargement has been conditioned on tackling SBCs. This paper analyzes such outside conditionality theoretically and empirically. First, by modeling the SBC problem as a war of attrition between the applicant countries' governments ...

Freizeitverhalten als Ausdruck sozialer Ungleichheiten oder Ergebnis individualisierter Lebensführung? Zur Bedeutung von Einkommen und Bildung im Zeitverlauf

In den modernen Gesellschaften ist die Freizeit eine Dimension des Lebens, die immer mehr an Bedeutung gewinnt und die Erklärung von Unterschieden im Freizeitverhalten soziologisch interessant macht. Die "subjektzentrierte" Lebensstilforschung vertritt die Ansicht, dass sozio-ökonomische Unterschiede auf Grund der langfristigen Verbesserung der materiellen Lebensumstände an Bedeutung verloren haben ...

Immigrant's Economic Performance across Europe: Does Immigration Policy Matter?

Drawing on panel data from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP), we compare the economic performance of immigrants to Great Britain, West Germany, Denmark, Luxembourg, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Austria to that of the respective indigenous population. The unit of analysis is the individual in the household ...

Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe: A Simulation Analysis

Automatic Identification of Faked and Fraudulent Interviews in the German SOEP

A Comparison of the Relationship between Obesity and Earnings in the U.S. and Germany

International Outsourcing and German Manufacturing Wages