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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Households can rely on private savings or on public unemployment insurance to hedge against the risk of becoming unemployed. These hedging mechanisms are used differently across countries. In this paper, we use a life cycle model to study the effects of unemployment on the portfolio choice of households in the US and in Germany. We distinguish short- and long-term unemployment and find that, in case ...
In:
Journal of Macroeconomics
40 (2014), S. 90-113
| Franziska Bremus, Vladimir Kuzin
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper studies welfare effects of a soft borrowing constraint on sovereign debt. The constraint is modeled as a proportional fine per unit of debt in excess of a specified reference value, resembling features of the Stability and Growth Pact. Sovereign debt is the result of myopic fiscal policy. It reduces welfare in the absence of lump-sum taxes. The paper shows that the borrowing constraint enhances ...
In:
Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control
38 (2014), S. 250-265
| Malte Rieth
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
The Chinese economic development affects GDP growth and inflation in the advanced countries. The size of the effects is inferred from multivariate time series and structural econometric methods. In particular, the GVAR and the NiGEM are employed to examine the interdependencies between the business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area and Japan. Evidence is based ...
In:
Economic Modelling
38 (2014), S. 184-189
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Bank debt guarantees have traditionally been viewed as costless measures to prevent bank runs. However, as recent experiences in some European countries have demonstrated, guarantees may link the coordination problems of bank and sovereign creditors and induce a functional interdependence between the likelihoods of a government default and bank illiquidity. Employing a global-game approach, we model ...
In:
Journal of Banking & Finance
45 (2014), S. 321-337
| Philipp König, Kartik Anand, Frank Heinemann
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
In this paper, the authors construct country-specific chronologies of the house price bubbles for 12 OECD countries over the period 1969:Q1-2009:Q4. These chronologies are obtained using a combination of a fundamental approach and a filter approach. The resulting speculative bubble chronology is the one which provides the highest concordance between these two techniques. In addition, the authors suggest ...
In:
Economics
7 (2013), 9, 26 S.
| Christian Dreger, Konstantin A. Kholodilin
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We analyze the relationship between asset prices and the trade balance estimating a Bayesian VAR for a broad set of 38 industrialized and emerging market countries. To derive model-based identifying restrictions, we model asset price shocks as news shocks about future productivity in a two-country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Such shocks are found to exert sizable effects on the trade ...
In:
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
45 (2013), 7, S. 1211-1251
| Marcel Fratzscher, Roland Straub
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
In 1988 Basil Moore published his book Horizontalists and Verticalists: The Macroeconomics of Credit Money, which this year celebrates its 25th birthday. We discuss this book from today's perspective, and in particular whether Moore's main assertions have been validated or rejected by the development of central bank practice and academic monetary economics. We find that the book has impressively stood ...
In:
Review of Keynesian Economics
1 (2013), 4, S. 383-390
| Ulrich Bindseil, Philipp König
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
In the debate on global imbalances, the euro area countries received inreasing attention since the outbreak of the financial crisis. While the current account is on balance for the entire area, divergences between individual member states have increased since the introduction of the common currency and are part of the excessive imbalances procedure. This paper explores the determinants of the imbalances ...
In:
Review of International Economics
21 (2013), 1, S. 6-17
| Ansgar Belke, Christian Dreger
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
For many analysts, the Chinese economy is being spurred on by a bubble in the housing market, probably driven by the fiscal stimulus package and massive credit expansion, with potentially adverse effects on the real economy. The house price development is investigated by panel cointegration techniques. Evidence is based on a data-set for 35 major cities. Cointegration is detected between real house ...
In:
Urban Policy and Research
31 (2013), 1, S. 27-39
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export ...
In:
Empirical Economics
45 (2013), 1, S. 39-60
| Christian Dreger, Dierk Herzer