Publikationen der Abteilung Makroökonomie

Identifying Effective Combinations of Economic Policy Measures for the Coronavirus Recession in Europe

As the coronavirus pandemic spread across the globe in early 2020, the European Central Bank as well as national governments in the euro area enacted or announced numerous economic policy measures to counteract the severe economic consequences of the resulting lockdowns. In this paper, the immediate effect of the announcements on government bond and stock markets are estimated in a panel study. The ...

Financial Market Participants Expect the Coronavirus Pandemic to Have Long-Lasting Economic Impact in Europe

Market participants are generally in agreement that the coronavirus pandemic will have a severe impact on the European economy, but it is difficult to predict the length and extent of the pandemic’s effects. However, using the yield curves of corporate bonds, we can reach some preliminary conclusions about the impact of the pandemic. The expectations of financial market participants are revealed in ...

Government Bonds: European Banks Still Display Strong Home Bias: Requiring Capital Backing Could Worsen Problem

The European sovereign debt crisis illustrated how the stability of the entire financial system suffers when banks and sovereigns become too intertwined. However, there has been seemingly little success in reducing the bank-sovereign nexus in the decade since the crisis. As this Weekly Report shows, home bias remains strong and many European banks are still primarily purchasing domestic government ...

Price Stability and Climate Risks: Sensible Measures for the European Central Bank

By the end of 2020, the European Central Bank (ECB) will present the results of its monetary policy strategy review. What changes are to be expected and what changes are needed? This report covers two areas of the strategy review. First, alternatives to the current definition of price stability are discussed. Current studies and the practices of other central banks indicate that supplementing the ...

Coronavirus Plunges the German Economy into Recession: DIW Economic Outlook

The spread of the coronavirus worldwide is exerting considerable pressure on the economy. Compounded by the lack of quality data, model uncertainty, and uncertainty over government responses, economic forecasts are subject to even greater uncertainty than usual. It is difficult to predict how the pandemic will progress. Figures on the impact of the virus, obtained by comparing it with previous epidemics, ...

Coronavirus Causing Major Economic Shock to the Global Economy: DIW Economic Outlook

The ongoing corona pandemic is causing a major shock to the global economy. In the coming months, many countries are expected to suffer severe economic downturns. Sealing off entire regions disrupts supply chains, resulting in production losses and falls in consumption. The global economy is expected to grow by as little as 2.5 percent this year instead of by the 3.7 percent forecasted previously. ...

German Economy in Recession: Bridging Pinch Points, Building Confidence, Boosting Demand: Editorial

Financial Stability: New, Detailed Datasets Allow for Innovation of Stress Tests

The 2008-2010 crisis has shown that authorities were missing crucial information necessary to identify risks to the financial system in an accurate and timely manner. To be prepared for future crises, a range of legislation in Europe and beyond was passed. The scope and depth of information being reported from across the financial system, including previously disregarded segments, have thus significantly ...

German Economy: Industry Struggles to Shake of the Crisis: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy remains weak as of the fourth quarter of 2019. However, although industrial production is continuing its downward trend, there are signs of a slow recovery. The manufacturing sector is likely to expand production gradually beginning in 2020; therefore, it is less likely the recession in the industry will affect the service sector and construction industry. These sectors are profiting ...

Global Economy Continues to Suffer Weak Growth Momentum: DIW Economic Outlook

Favorable labor market conditions and the resulting increase in private consumption are still sustaining the global economy. Trade disputes and political uncertainties, however, continue to slow investment activity, with the result that economic growth will only be moderate particularly in advanced economies. By contrast, growth is accelerating in emerging markets, especially in India. Global economic ...