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DIW Discussion Papers 2027 / 2022
We examine the additivity of stock-market expectations over different time intervals. When asked about a ten-year interval, survey respondents expect a stock-price change that is not equal to, but closer to zero than, the sum of their expectations over two shorter time intervals that cover the same ten years. Such sub-additivity is irrational in that it cannot stem from aggregating short-term expectations. ...
2022| Peter Haan, Chen Sun, Uwe Sunde, Georg Weizsäcker
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DIW Discussion Papers 2024 / 2022
I quantify the perceived changes in hourly wage rates associated with working different hours on the same job for a representative sample of female workers. While part-time working women expect significant hourly wage gains from switching to full-time work - 7% on average - full-time workers expect no effect on current wages when switching to part-time, on average. Perceived pecuniary losses from part-time ...
2022| Annekatrin Schrenker
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DIW Discussion Papers 1994 / 2022
This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in housing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household survey, past sale and rental offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the ...
2022| Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt
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DIW Discussion Papers 1985 / 2021
This study analyzes the causal effect of an increase in the retirement age on health. We exploit a sizable cohort-specific pension reform for women using two complementary empirical approaches - a Regression Discontinuity Design and a Difference-in- Differences approach. The analysis is based on official records covering all individuals insured by the public health system in Germany and including all ...
2021| Mara Barschkett, Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan, Anna Hammerschmid
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DIW Discussion Papers 1978 / 2021
Early retirement options are usually targeted at employees at risk of not reaching their regular retirement age in employment. An important at-risk group comprises employees who have worked in demanding jobs for many years. This group may be particularly negatively affected by the abolition of early retirement options. To measure differences in labor market reactions of employees in low- and high-demand ...
2021| Johannes Geyer, Svenja Lorenz, Thomas Zwick, Mona Bruns
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DIW Discussion Papers 1977 / 2021
Wir untersuchen anhand von repräsentativen Daten für die Privatwirtschaft (Verdienststrukturerhebung 2018) Anteile und Höhe von umgewandelten Entgelten nach verschiedenen individuellen und betrieblichen Merkmalen von Arbeitnehmerinnen und Arbeitnehmern in Deutschland für das Jahr 2018. Deskriptive wie multivariate Regressionsanalysen weisen sowohl auf eine selektive Teilnahmebereitschaft zur Umwandlung ...
2021| Johannes Geyer, Ralf K. Himmelreicher
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DIW Discussion Papers 1975 / 2021
Grandparents act as the third largest caregiver after parental care and daycare in Germany, as in many Western societies. Adopting a double-generation perspective, we investigate the causal impact of this care mode on children's health, socio-emotional behavior, and school outcomes, as well as parental well-being. Based on representative German panel data sets, and exploiting arguably exogenous variations ...
2021| Mara Barschkett, C. Katharina Spieß, Elena Ziege
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DIW Discussion Papers 1941 / 2021
For the design of the pension system, it is crucial to disentangle the employment responses related to the substitution effect and the income effect. In this paper, we provide causal evidence regarding the importance of the income effect, which is generally assumed to be small or non-existent. We exploit a pension reform in Germany that raised pension bene- fits related to children. For the identification, ...
2021| Sebastian Becker, Hermann Buslei, Johannes Geyer, Peter Haan
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DIW Discussion Papers 1929 / 2021
Wir untersuchen erstmals anhand von repräsentativen Daten für die Privatwirtschaft (Verdienststrukturerhebung 2014) Anteile und Höhe von umgewandelten Entgelten nach verschiedenen individuellen und betrieblichen Merkmalen der Beschäftigten in Deutschland. Deskriptive wie multivariate Regressionsanalysen weisen sowohl auf eine selektive Teilnahmebereitschaft zur Umwandlung als auch auf eine mit steigendem ...
2021| Johannes Geyer, Ralf Himmelreicher
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DIW Discussion Papers 1902 / 2020
We estimate the impact of parental health on adult children’s labor market outcomes. We focus on health shocks which increase care dependency abruptly. Our estimation strategy exploits the variation in the timing of shocks across treated families. Empirical results based on Austrian administrative data show a significant negative impact on labor market activities of children. This effect is more pronounced ...
2020| Wolfgang Frimmel, Martin Halla, Jörg Paetzold, Julia Schmieder