Die deutsche Wirtschaft wird in diesem Jahr, nicht zuletzt getragen von einer starken Auslandsnachfrage, um 2,4 Prozent wachsen. Die rege Investitionstätigkeit setzt sich in diesem Umfeld fort. Die Impulse vom Außenhandel schwächen sich jedoch etwas ab. Trotz der in den kommenden Quartalen kräftigen Konsumnachfrage schwächt sich daher das Wachstum von Beschäftigung und Wirtschaftsleistung ab. Im kommenden ...
We analyze whether start-up rates in different industries systematically change with business cycle variables. Using a unique data set at the industry level, we mostly find correlations that are consistent with counter-cyclical influences of the business cycle on entries in both innovative and non-innovative industries. Entries into the largescale industries, including the innovative part of manufacturing, ...
Well-anchored inflation expectations should not react to macroeconomic news. This paper analyzes the dynamics of inflation expectations in a proxy SVAR model, where macro news shocks are identified by their correlation with surprises from macroeconomic news announcements. Our results confirm that macro news shocks have no impact on U.S. long-term inflation expectations in the long run. In the short ...
We estimate the effect of government spending shocks on the US economy with a time-varying parameter vector autoregression. The recent Great Recession period appears to be characterized by uniquely large impulse responses of output to fiscal shocks. Moreover, the particularity of this period is underlined by highly unusual responses of several other variables. The pattern of fiscal shock responses ...
Ten years after the worldwide financial and economic crisis was triggered by the American real estate market, real estate prices are rising around the globe. Concerns about a new housing bubble are growing. The present report based on OECD data for 20 countries demonstrates that this concern is not unwarranted. In eight countries, including the United Kingdom and the USA, the evolution of real estate ...
