Thema Konjunktur

German Economy: Upswing Has Gained Breadth but Will Not Hold Pace: DIW Economic Outlook

The upswing of the German economy continues and since the beginning of 2017, even at a somewhat faster pace. Sharp gains in employment are still driving consumption. And companies are investing significantly more in machines and facilities. Many global risks that previously limited the propensity to invest—in Germany and many other countries—have vanished. And the euro area is also finally feeling ...

The Nexus of CO2 Emissions, Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and Trade-Openness in WTO Countries

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between CO2 emissions, energy consumption, GDP, and trade-openness from 1971 to 2013, based on the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for 70 WTO countries. Using recently developed secondgeneration panel data methods, the empirical results support the EKC hypothesis for the high-, middle-, and lower-income panels used. Concerning the energy consumption ...

Trends and Cycles in Macro Series: The Case of US Real GDP

In this paper we propose a new modelling framework for the analysis of macro series that includes both stochastic trends and stochastic cycles in addition to deterministic terms such as linear and non-linear trends. We examine four US macro series, namely annual and quarterly real GDP and GDP per capita. The results indicate that the behaviour of US GDP can be captured accurately by a model incorporating ...

Essays on Unconventional Monetary Policy, Inflation Expectations, and Commodity Prices

Aufschwung in Deutschland weiter kräftig — Anspannungen nehmen zu

Der Aufschwung der deutschen Wirtschaft hat an Stärke und Breite gewonnen. In einigen Segmenten, so am Arbeitsmarkt, machen sich inzwischen sogar erste Zeichen einer Anspannung bemerkbar. Neben den Konsumausgaben tragen nun auch die Investitionen und das Auslandsgeschäft zur Expansion bei. Letzteres profitiert davon, dass die Konjunktur im Euroraum deutlich aufwärtsgerichtet ist. Die Expansion dort ...

Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold

We propose a new instrument to identify uncertainty shocks in a SVAR model with external instruments. The instrument is constructed by exploiting variations in the price of gold around events that capture periods of changes in uncertainty. The variations in the price of gold around the events correlate with the underlying uncertainty shocks, due to the perception of gold as a safe haven asset. To control ...

Simulating Climate and Energy Policy with Agent-Based Modelling: the Energy Modelling Laboratory (Emlab)

We present an approach to simulate climate and energy policy for the EU, using a flexible and modular agent-based modelling approach and a toolbox, called the Energy Modelling Laboratory (EMLab). The paper shortly reviews core challenges and approaches for modelling climate and energy policy in light of the energy transition. Afterwards, we present an agent-based model of investment in power generation ...

The Use of Financial Market Variables in Forecasting

Financial market indicators can provide valuable information for forecasting macroeconomic developments. In response to the global financial crisis of 2007/2008, the role of financial variables for forecasting has been revisited, and new empirical and theoretical forecasting methods able to explicitly incorporate financial market information have been developed. This roundup discusses characteristics ...

Frühzeitiger Ausstieg der EZB aus dem Anleihekaufprogramm dürfte Wachstum und Inflation bremsen

Die Europäische Zentralbank will ihr 2015 gestartetes Ankaufprogramm von Staatsanleihen schrittweise zurückfahren. Welche gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen die unterschiedlichen Ausstiegsmöglichkeiten haben könnten, zeigt eine Studie des DIW Berlin. Untersucht wird, wie sich eine Reduktion des Ankaufvolumens, ein frühzeitiger Ausstieg und ein schnellerer Ausstieg aus dem Ankaufprogramm auf das BIP-Wachstum ...

Employment and Human Capital Investment Intentions among Recent Refugees in Germany

Motivations to participate in the labour market as well as to invest in labour market skills are crucial for the successful integration of refugees. In this paper we use a unique dataset – the IAB-BAMF-SOEP Refugee Survey, which is a representative longitudinal study of all refugees reported on administrative records in Germany – and analyse which determinants and characteristics are correlated with ...