Thema Konjunktur

MIDAS vs. Mixed-Frequency VAR: Nowcasting GDP in the Euro Area

This paper compares the mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and mixed-frequency VAR (MF-VAR) approaches to model specification in the presence of mixed-frequency data, e.g. monthly and quarterly series. MIDAS leads to parsimonious models which are based on exponential lag polynomials for the coefficients, whereas MF-VAR does not restrict the dynamics and can therefore suffer from the curse of dimensionality. ...

Deutsche Konjunktur auf der Kippe: Gastkommentar

Die deutsche Industrie - ein Fels in der Brandung?

Die Industrie in Deutschland hat dank des seit Anfang 2009 ununterbrochenen Wachstums im Sommer 2011 das Produktionsniveau von vor der Wirtschaftskrise wieder erreicht. Getrieben wurde die Erholung durch die starke in- und ausländische Nachfrage nach deutschen Investitions- und Vorleistungsgütern. Der ifo-Geschäftsklimaindex, der seit Juli 2011 in der Tendenz nach unten zeigt, und die gesunkenen Auftragseingänge ...

Starkes Wachstum 2011 - Stagnation im nächsten Jahr: Sieben Fragen an Dorothea Lucke

Financial Integration and Macroeconomic Stability: What Role for Large Banks?

This study assesses how banking sector integration and especially cross-border lending affect macroeconomic stability. I use a two-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous banks that are hit by idiosyncratic shocks. According to the concept of granularity, idiosyncratic shocks to large firms (or: banks) do not have to cancel out under a skewed distribution of firm sizes. Given the highly ...

Inflation in China ist zunehmend hausgemacht

Die Inflation ist derzeit das beherrschende makroökonomische Problem in China. Seit einigen Monaten werden Preissteigerungsraten von mehr als sechs Prozent verzeichnet. Restriktive wirtschaftspolitische Maßnahmen sind bisher weitgehend wirkungslos geblieben. Die Regierung hat inzwischen eingeräumt, dass sie ihr Inflationsziel von vier Prozent in diesem Jahr wohl nicht mehr erreichen wird. Der Preisschub ...

Liquidity and Asset Prices: How Strong Are the Linkages?

The appropriate design of monetary policy in integrated financial markets is one of the most challenging areas for central banks. One hot topic is whether the increase in liquidity has contributed to the formation of price bubbles in asset markets in the years preceding the financial crisis. If linkages are strong, the inclusion of asset prices in the monetary policy rule may limit speculative runs ...

How Emission Certificate Allocations Distort Fossil Investments: The German Example

Despite political activities to foster a low-carbon energy transition, Germany currently sees a considerable number of new coal power plants being added to its power mix. There are several possible drivers for this "dash for coal", but it is widely accepted that windfall profits gained through free allocation of ETS certificates play an important role. Yet the quantification of allocation-related investment ...

Growth Accelerations Revisited

Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) found that political regime changes, external shocks and economic reforms are statistically significant predictors of growth accelerations. Updating the data from 1992 up to 2000 and correcting for coding errors, this paper argues that the original results are fragile upon changes in period, sample, measures, and inclusion of controls. All the data are provided ...

The External Financing of Emerging Markets: Evidence from Two Waves of Financial Globalization

What determines the yields at which international investors are willing to lend to emerging market countries, and the amounts of such lending? We analyze the motivation underlying investors' choices in allocating their holdings across countries, through regressions for both prices (bond yields) and quantities (bond market capitalization or stocks of external liabilities) estimated during two waves ...