In this paper, we make multi-step forecasts of the annual growth rates of the real gross regional product (GRP) for each of the 31 Chinese provinces simultaneously. Beside the usual panel data models, we use panel models that explicitly account for spatial dependence between the GRP growth rates. In addition, the possibility of spatial effects being different for different groups of provinces (Interior ...
We examine real business cycle convergence for 41 euro area regions and 48 US states. The results obtained by a panel model with spatial effects indicate that the impact of national business cycles has been rather stable over the past two decades. A tendency for convergence in business cycles often detected in country data is not confirmed at the regional level. The pattern of synchronization across ...
We evaluate the informational content of ex post and ex ante predictors of periods of excess stock (market) valuation. For a cross section comprising 10 OECD economies and a time span of at most 40 years alternative binary chronologies of price bubble periods are determined. Using these chronologies as dependent processes and a set of macroeconomic and financial variables as explanatory variables, ...
In this paper a mixed-frequency VAR à la Mariano & Murasawa (2004) with Markov regime switching in the parameters is estimated by Bayesian inference. Unlike earlier studies, that used the pseuo-EM algorithm of Dempster, Laird & Rubin (1977) to estimate the model, this paper describes how to make use of recent advances in Bayesian inference on mixture models. This way, one is able to surmount some well-known ...
Die Beschlüsse des EU-Gipfels vom 26. und 27. Oktober sehen wichtige Schritte zur Bewältigung der Griechenlandkrise vor. Sie erleichtern Griechenlands Schuldensituation und verschaffen dem Land so finanzielle Spielräume, um Reformen umzusetzen. Eine Ablehnung von Reformen würde zu im Moment nicht kalkulierbaren Folgen führen. Die EU-Politiker haben Pläne zur Stützung des Bankensektors vorgelegt und ...
As building-integrated photovoltaic (PV) solutions can meet around one-third of electricity demand in Germany and China, both countries are interested in exploring this potential. PV technologies have demonstrated significant price reductions, but large-scale global application of PV requires further technology improvements and cost reductions along the value chain. We analyze policies in Germany and ...
Das kräftige Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft hält an. Nach dem Rekordzuwachs von 3,6 Prozent im Jahr 2010 wird die deutsche Wirtschaft dieses Jahr noch einmal um 3,2 Prozent wachsen. Für das nächste Jahr ist immer noch mit einem überdurchschnittlichen Wachstum von 1,8 Prozent zu rechnen. Entsprechend verbessert sich auch die Lage auf dem Arbeitsmarkt weiter, wenn auch nicht so schwungvoll wie in ...
