Thema Konjunktur

Gefährliche Zahlen

Technological Change and Transition: Relative Contributions to Worldwide Growth during the 1990s

In this paper we use the Kumar and Russell [American Economic Review (2002) Vol. 92, pp. 527-548] growth-accounting procedure to examine cross-country growth during the 1990s. Using a data set comprising developed, newly industrialized, developing and transitional economies, we decompose the growth of output per worker into components attributable to technological catch-up, technological change and ...

Was sind die Ursachen der aktuellen inflationären Entwicklung?

The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations

We investigate the relevance of Carroll's sticky information model of inflation expectations for four major European economies (France, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom). In contrast to the most rational expectation models, households in the sticky information environment update their expectations occasionally rather than instantaneously due to the costs of acquiring and processing information. ...

Der Abstand zum Bund schrumpft

Faktorenprognosen der Industrieproduktion

Zur Ermittlung kurzfristiger Konjunkturprognosen wird häufig auf die Faktorenmodelle, die auf der Hauptkomponentenanalyse beruhen, zurückgegriffen. In diesem Beitrag wird diese Methodik zur Vorhersage der Produktion im verarbeitenden Gewerbe angewandt, insbesondere im Hinblick auf Automobil-, Metallherstellung, Maschinenbau und Produktion chemischer Erzeugnisse. Die Ergebnisse werden mit denen der ...

Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem

We develop a dynamic model of strategic investment in a transnational pipeline system. In the absence of international contract enforcement, countries may distort investment in order to increase their bargaining power, resulting in overinvestment in expensive and underinvestment in cheap pipelines. With repeated interaction, however, there is a potential to increase efficiency through dynamic collusion. ...

Convergence in Institutions and Market Outcomes: Cross-Country and Time-Series Evidence from the BEEPS Surveys in Transition Economies

This paper uses the BEEPS firm-level data to study the process of convergence of transition countries with developed market economies. The primary focus of the study is on competition and market structure, finance and the structure of lending to firms, and how firms respond to the economic environment by restructuring; we are able to do this because the BEEPS cover thousands of firms from virtually ...

Persistence and Determinants of Firm Profit in Emerging Markets

The paper studies the persistence of profit and its determinants in emerging markets. We apply Markov chain analysis, dynamic panel GMM estimation, and quantile regression techniques to a panel of approximately 3,000 Ukrainian companies. The empirical results show a moderate level of profit persistence, as well as a relatively low speed of adjustment to the steady-state profit level, thus providing ...

Am Puls der Logistik