In this paper a dynamic bi-factor model with Markov switching is proposed to measure and predict turning points of the German business cycle. It estimates simultaneously the composite leading indicator (CLI) and composite coincident indicator (CCI) together with corresponding probabilities of being in recession. According to the bi-factor model, on average, CLI leads CCI by 3 months at both peaks and ...
The year 2004 saw Turkey take a big step forward to the European Union, as international investors also believe, and in December last year the European Council opened up real prospects of entry for Turkey for the first time. Agreement was also reached with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on further support, chiefly to secure the servicing of public debt in the next few years. The consequences ...
Previous poverty assessments for Burkina Faso were due to the neglect of some important methodological issues misleading and led to the so-called 'Burkinabè Growth-Poverty-Paradox', i.e. relatively sustained macro-economic growth, but almost constant poverty. We estimate that poverty significantly decreased between 1994 and 2003 at least on the national level, i.e. growth was in contrast to what previous ...
