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Modelling the EU ETS: Stability through a permit reserve

Abgeschlossenes Projekt




Karsten Neuhoff


1. Juni 2014 - 30. Juni 2015


Mercator Stiftung

The project brings together a research consortium to undertake a model comparison study of the proposed EU ETS Market Stability Reserve. Combining the insights emerging from several models the aim is to provide robust quantitative evidence and enhance the understanding of different options to implement a Market Stability Reserve. Such an analysis can provide policy makers and market participants with a level of confidence in the design of an adjustment mechanism, which is not possible from an individual, compartmentalised, modelling approach. Key questions which have governed the research include:
-How to design a MSR capable of dealing with future uncertainties?
-Given a persistent shock, how effective are different MSR designs in returning the market to equilibrium?

The results of economic modelling are supported by research to better understand the input assumptions surrounding abatement costs, reference case emissions as well as the hedging strategies of entities that participate in the EU ETS. Furthermore, members of the consortium are conducting lab style experiments to understand the behavioural aspects of emission permit markets, which are not captured within economic models.

The project builds from a collaborative approach with industry and policy makers, to ensure their concerns are reflected in the modelling framework. Key research partners include: Resources for the Future, the London School of Economics and Political Sciences, the Centre for European Economic Research, the Climate Economics Chair, the University of Oxford, the Zurich University of Applied Sciences, the University of Michigan, the University of Virginia and the Colorado School of Mines. The project is funded through the Mercator Foundation.

You can find the Climate Strategies MSR Report here (PDF, 1.11 MB).

Neuhoff, K., Acworth, W. and Schopp, A. (2015). Marktstabilitätsreserve stärkt den europäischen Emissionshandel. German Summary. (PDF, 1.03 MB)DIW Wochenbericht 21/2015. S. 510-516

Technical papers

Fell, H. Comparing Policies to Confront Permit Over-allocation (PDF, 474.24 KB)

Holt, Ch. and Shobe W. Price and Quantity “Collars” for Stabilizing Emissions Allowance Prices (PDF, 1.81 MB)

Kollenberg, S. and Taschini, L. The European Union Emissions Trading System and the Market Stability Reserve: Optimal Dynamic Supply Adjustment (PDF, 3.72 MB)

Landis, F. Final Report on Marginal Abatement. Cost Curves for the Evaluation of the Market Stability Reserve (PDF, 333.45 KB)

Salant, St. What Ails the European Union's Emissions Trading System? Two Diagnoses Calling for Di fferent Treatments (PDF, 1.03 MB)

Schopp, A., Acworth, W., Huppmann, D. and Neuhoff, K. (2015). Modelling a Market Stability Reserve in Carbon Markets. (PDF, 0.76 MB) DIW Discussion Papers 1483

DIW Team