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Growth and Inflation Forecasts for Germany: A Panel-Based Assessment of Accuracy and Efficiency

We analyse forecasts of professional forecasters for Germany regarding the time span from 1970 to 2004. This novel panel data set renders it possible to assess the accuracy and efficiency of growth and inflation forecasts more efficiently than in previous studies. We argue that the forecasts are, on average, unbiased and weakly - but not strongly - efficient. Using model confidence sets suggested by ...

Export-Led Growth in Chile: Assessing the Role of Export Composition in Productivity Growth

This study examines the export-led growth hypothesis using annual time-series data from Chile in a production function framework. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and focuses on the impact of manufactured and primary exports on productivity growth. In order to investigate if and how manufactured and primary exports affect economic growth via increases in productivity, several ...

On the Estimation and Forecasting of International Migration: How Relevant is Heterogeneity across Countries?

This paper performs a comparative analysis of estimation as well as of out-of-sample forecasting results of more than 20 estimators common in the panel data literature using the data on migration to Germany from 18 source countries in the period 1967-2001. Our results suggest that the choice of an estimation procedure has a substantial impact on the parameter estimates of the migration function. Out-of-sample ...

On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence

In this paper we perform a comparative study of the forecasting properties of the about 30 alternative leading indicators for Germany using the growth rates of German real GDP. In addition to them, we have constructed a diffusion index based on the principal component analysis and including 145 component series that reflect all the facets of German economy. We use the post-unification data which cover ...

Endogenous Costs and Price-Cost Margins: An Application to the European Airline Industry

This paper allows for endogenous costs in the estimation of price cost margins. In particular, we estimate price-cost margins when firms bargain over wages. We extent the standard two-equation set-up (demand and first-order condition in the product market) to include a third equation, which is derived from bargaining over wages. In this way, price-cost margins are determined by wages and vice versa. ...

Fiscal Federalism in Russia: Theory, Comparisons, Evaluations

Russia's system of fiscal federalism is examined and evaluated. Current theories of fiscal federalism provide criteria for evaluating such systems. Developments in OECD countries are examined to provide comparative perspectives. Data from Russia's Goskomstat and the Ministry of Finance, which provide an overview of Russia's regional economic characteristics, are used to apply the selected evaluation ...

Agglomeration and Tax Competition

Tax competition may be different in "new economic geography settings" compared to standard tax competition models. If the mobile factor is completely agglomerated in one region, it earns an agglomeration rent which can be taxed. Closer integration first results in a "race to the top" in taxes before leading to a "race to the bottom". We reexamine these issues in a model that produces stable equilibria ...

Social Anomie and Racial Segregation in South Africa

The concept of anomie is one of the classics of sociological theory. Developed by scholars such as Emile Durkheim and Robert K. Merton, the concept refers to the absence of clear social norms and values and to a lack of sense of social regulation. However, whereas Merton focused on features of relative deprivation that cause anomie, Durkheim was primarily interested in the link between rapid social ...

How Much Market Do Market-Based Instruments Create? An Analysis for the Case of "White" Certificates

Among the diverse economic instruments to foster energy efficiency (EE) and climate protection, tradable certificates have been investigated for renewable energy, and the EU directive on an emissions-trading scheme for CO2 certificates has been approved in 2003. In contrast, tradable energy efficiency - or "white" - certificates have only lately been considered as a market-based tool to foster EE as ...

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