Thema Konjunktur

German Economy Remaining Robust in Uncertain Times: DIW Economic Outlook

The German economy will keep on growing amid risks although growth will slow down somewhat. GDP will continue to grow noticeably at 1.8 percent this year, 1.7 percent next year, and 1.8 percent in 2020. Private household incomes in particular—and thus consumption as well—are boosting growth, as the labor markets are improving: the unemployment rate will fall from 5.2 percent this year to well below ...

Weltwirtschaft und Euroraum: erhöhte Unsicherheit dämpft Wachstum: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Sommer 2018

Die politischen Rahmenbedingungen der weltwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung sind derzeit durch vielfache Unsicherheiten geprägt; dies lastet insbesondere auf der Investitionstätigkeit und bremst die globale Konjunktur. Das DIW Berlin reduziert seine Prognose für das laufende und das kommende Jahr daher leicht auf 4,1 Prozent beziehungsweise 3,9 Prozent. Der globale Aufschwung scheint aber weithin intakt. ...

Deutsche Wirtschaft: Abschwächung in Sicht: Grundlinien der Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Sommer 2018

Im Vergleich zum vergangenen Jahr schwächt sich die deutsche Konjunktur merklich ab. Die Bestellungen aus dem Ausland sinken und die heimischen Unternehmen halten sich mit Investitionen zurück. Die Kapazitäten bleiben jedoch stark ausgelastet – auch weil im kommenden Jahr die Regierung die Einkommen der privaten Haushalte anschiebt. Aber vor allem steigen die Einkommen wegen der guten Lage am Arbeitsmarkt ...

Der deutsche Aufschwung flacht etwas ab: Interview mit Ferdinand Fichtner

The German Economy Is Slowing down Somewhat: Editorial

The Global Economy and the Euro Area: Increased Uncertainty Is Dampening Growth

The political conditions for growth are currently dominated by increased uncertainty; this is particularly weighing on investment activity and slowing down the global economy. DIW Berlin is lowering its forecast slightly for this year and the next to 4.1 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively. However, global expansion appears to remain intact. In developed economies, primarily the good labor market ...

German Economy: Slowdown in Sight

Compared to last year, the German economy is weakening noticeably. Orders from abroad are decreasing and domestic companies are holding back on investments. However, capacity utilization remains high—also because the government will boost the incomes of private households next year. However, above all, incomes are rising noticeably due to the positive situation in the labor market: the unemployment ...

Deutsche Konjunktur schlägt etwas langsamere Gangart ein: Editorial

Leading Indicators of Fiscal Distress: Evidence from Extreme Bonds Analysis

Early warning systems (EWSs) are widely used to assess a country’s vulnerability to fiscal distress. A fiscal distress episode is identified as a period when government experiences extreme funding difficulties. Most EWSs employ a specific set of only fiscal leading indicators predetermined by the researchers, which casts doubt on their robustness. We revisit this issue using extreme bounds analysis, ...

Company Productivity Increases with More Knowledge-Based Capital

In Germany, around 200 billion euros are invested every year in knowledge-based capital, which encompasses assets such as research and development, software and databases, organizational capital, marketing and advertising, and technical design. Yet investments in traditional capital (such as machinery and non-residential buildings) still significantly outweigh knowledge investments, standing at over ...