This briefing report evaluates the ECB's monetary policy in a context of declining inflation and stagnant growth. Inflation risks have been averted and, after a period of relatively tight policy in 2024, benchmark comparisons indicate that the current interest rate is consistent with the ECB's mandate. The prevailing economic and inflation outlook supports further rate cuts. However, the high level ...
Despite a strong start to 2025, the German economy will experience middling growth for the time being before beginning a long-awaited upturn at the end of the year. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates growth of 0.3 percent for 2025 and of 1.7 percent for 2026; thus, DIW Berlin is increasing its forecast significantly. Expansionary fiscal policy is counteracting the effects of higher tariffs. From 2026 ...
Diese Dissertation untersucht, wie makroökonomische Rahmenbedingungen und Politik mit Erwartungen, institutionellen Auflagen sowie länder- und haushaltsspezifischer Heterogenität interagieren. In vier Kapiteln analysiere ich, wie Geldpolitik über die Medien die Öffentlichkeit erreicht, wie Fiskalregeln die Fähigkeit von Regierungen, auf Schocks zu reagieren, beeinflussen und wie sich Veränderungen ...
The low degree of stock market participation (SMP) is one of the big puzzles in finance. Numerous determinants have been proposed. We put these determinants into a structure that is derived from a standard static portfolio model. Then we discuss arguments put forward regarding specific SMP determinants and the empirical evidence that has been provided. The focus of our survey is on the identification ...
Different methods of eliciting long-run expectations yield data that predict economic choices differently well. We ask members of a wide population sample to make a 10-year investment decision and to forecast stock market returns in one of two formats: they either predict the average of annual growth rates over the next 10 years, or they predict the total, cumulative growth that occurs over the 10-year ...
Attitudes toward fiscal policy differ: fiscal conservatism and fiscal liberalism vary in their willingness to tolerate budget deficits. We challenge the view that such attitudes reflect national preferences. Instead, we offer an economic explanation based on a two-country Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model, bringing its implicit political economy dimension to the forefront. We compute the welfare ...
Die Finalisierung der Banken- und Kapitalmarktunion steht schon lange auf der Agenda diverser Bundesregierungen. Sie wurde aber immer wieder verzögert. Der überraschende Vorstoß der italienischen Bank Unicredit, die deutsche Commerzbank zu übernehmen, machte Ende letzten Jahres deutlich, wie wichtig es ist, die Bankenunion voranzutreiben. Eine solche Bankenunion würde nicht nur dazu beitragen, ein ...
