Thema Konjunktur

Die Kontroverse um das Freihandelsabkommen TTIP

Ein kurzer Name sorgt für eine anhaltende Debatte: TTIP [tiːt|p]. Seit Beginn der Verhandlungen im Sommer 2013 trägt die mediale Berichterstattung über die geplante „Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership“ zwischen der EU und den USA zur kritischen Auseinandersetzung mit der Thematik bei. Hierbei ergibt sich bisweilen die Schwierigkeit, sachlich fundierte Argumente von einseitigen Stellungnahmen ...

The Controversy over the Free-Trade Agreement TTIP

A short name is causing a lasting debate: TTIP [tiːt|p]. Ever since the beginning of the negotiations in the summer of 2013, media coverage of the planned Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the EU and the US has contributed to a critical debate on the topic. In doing so, difficulties have arisen in differentiating factually substantiated arguments from one-sided statements. TTIP ...

Money Demand and the Role of Monetary Indicators in Forecasting Euro Area Inflation

This paper examines the stability of money demand and the forecasting performances of a broad monetary aggregate (M3), excess liquidity and excess inflation in predicting euro area inflation. The out-of sample forecasting performances are compared to a widely used alternative, the spread of interest rates. The results indicate that the evolution of M3 is still in line with money demand, even when observations ...

Wachstumsfaktor Telekommunikation: zum Beitrag der Telekommunikationsbranche zur wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in Deutschland; Endbericht

On the Relationship between Public and Private Investment in the Euro Area

This paper explores the long run relationship between public and private investment in the euro area in terms of capital stocks and gross investment flows. Panel techniques accounting for international spillovers are employed. While private and public capital stocks are cointegrated, the evidence is quite fragile for public and private investment flows. They enter a long run relationship only after ...

Does the Economic Integration of China Affect Growth and Inflation in Industrial Countries?

The Chinese economic development affects GDP growth and inflation in the advanced countries. The size of the effects is inferred from multivariate time series and structural econometric methods. In particular, the GVAR and the NiGEM are employed to examine the interdependencies between the business cycles in China and industrial countries, including the US, the euro area and Japan. Evidence is based ...

Prospects for Consumption-Based Growth in China

The Chinese model for economic growth is undergoing a fundamental reorientation. While output has been driven by investments and exports in recent decades, private consumption is expected to become a major trigger for future GDP growth. However, the conditions for higher demand from households are far from optimal: the savings rate is high, driven in particular by the low level of social security and ...

China's New Course: Strengthening Private Consumption: Five Questions to Christian Dreger

R&D Behavior of German Manufacturing Companies during the 2008/09 Recession

This paper investigates to what extent the R&D behavior of manufacturing companies was influenced by the 2008/09 crisis. Based on a broad official data set for German manufacturing companies, only a few companies that engaged in R&D during 2008 gave it up in the following year. Some companies even started R&D during crisis. R&D expenditures declined in 2009 compared to 2008, but expanded in 2010. The ...

Cost-Minimal Investments into Conventional Generation Capacities under a Europe-Wide Renewables Policy

For the future development of the European electricity system, renewable generation is assigned a dominant role with the underlying aim to reduce the carbon intensity. This has direct implications for conventional, dispatchable generation capacities and their future development. The objective of this paper is to investigate the investments in conventional generation technologies for a given renewable ...