Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

Aufsätze referiert extern - Web of Science

Dawud Ansari, Franziska Holz, Hashem al-Kuhlani

In: Economics of Energy and Environmental Policy 9 (2020), 1, S. 21-42

Abstract

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, numerical framework, qualitative elaboration) and quantitative energy system indicators at the global and regional (Europe, Asia-Pacific region, North America) level; (ii) numerous observations from a verbal analysis intended to stimulate future research; and (iii) the discussion of our own outlook. We find that scenarios essentially carrying forward current policies and/or trends lead to future worlds that do not meet the 2°C target of the Paris Agreement. Interestingly, there are both normative and exploratory scenarios reaching the Paris Agreement, and there is no consensus between outlooks on how to attain low-emission futures towards 2050. Some scenarios rely on a very strong role of renewables, others on a substantial role of negative emission technologies with fossil fuel use, yet others on assuming decreasing energy demand. There is a strong variation between outlooks with respect to transparency on scenario generation, modelling approach, and data. We argue that, in addition to transparency, the actual inclusion of a qualitative analysis of drivers and storylines helps ensure the political, social and technological feasibility of scenarios.

Franziska Holz

Deputy Head of Department in the Energy, Transportation, Environment Department



Keywords: Energy outlooks; Scenarios; Energy modelling; Climate change
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5547/2160-5890.9.1.dans

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