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House Price Expectations

SOEPpapers 1162, 33 S.

Niklas Gohl, Peter Haan, Claus Michelsen, Felix Weinhardt


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This study examines short-, medium-, and long-run price expectations in hous ing markets. We derive and test six hypothesis about the incidence, formation, and relevance of price expectations. To do so, we use data from a tailored household sur vey, past sale offerings, satellites, and from an information RCT. As novel findings, we show that price expectations exhibit mean reversion in the long-run. Moreover, we do not find evidence for biases related to individual housing tenure decisions or regret aversion. Confirming existing findings, we show that local market character istics matter for expectations throughout, as well as aggregate price information. Lastly, we corroborate existing evidence that expectations are relevant for portfolio choice.

Felix Weinhardt

Wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter in der Abteilung Staat

Peter Haan

Abteilungsleiter in der Abteilung Staat

JEL-Classification: R21;R31
Keywords: housing, house price expectations
Frei zugängliche Version: (econstor)