Cluster-Seminar Public Finances and Living Conditions

Two significant drivers of a person's financial situation in old age are pension income and costs for long-term care dependence. Both are unknown when the person makes her most important financial decisions, which makes it particularly interesting to understand her beliefs about them and how they influence her choices. In a representative survey, we elicit detailed expectations about individuals’ own planned decisions and about possible future policy environments. We then compare the expectations to population and sub-population averages from administrative as well as other survey sources to reveal potential biases. We find, that individuals have biased expectations determining their economic decision-making. Additionally, individuals are highly uncertain about possible future policy environments.