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Understanding the Great Recession

We argue that the vast bulk of movements in aggregate real economic activity during the Great Recession were due to financial frictions. We reach this conclusion by looking through the lens of an estimated New Keynesian model in which firms face moderate degrees of price rigidities, no nominal rigidities in wages, and a binding zero lower bound constraint on the nominal interest rate. Our model does ...

The Mayor's Advantage: Causal Evidence on Incumbency Effects in German Mayoral Elections

Integrating Intermittent Renewable Wind Generation: A Stochastic Multi-Market Electricity Model for the European Electricity Market

In northern Europe, wind energy has become a dominate renewable energy source, due to natural conditions and national support schemes. However, the uncertainty about wind generation affects existing network infrastructure and power production planning of generators, which cannot be fully diminished by wind forecasts. In this paper we develop a stochastic electricity market model to analyze the impact ...

Banking Market Structure and Macroeconomic Stability: Are Low-Income Countries Special?

Does the structure of banking markets affect macroeconomic volatility and, if yes, is this link different in low-income countries? In this paper, we explore the channels through which the structure of banking markets affects macroeconomic volatility. Our research has three main findings. First, we study whether idiosyncratic volatility at the bank level can impact aggregate volatility. We find weak ...

From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections

U.S. shale gas production is generally expected to continue its fast rise of the last years. However, a cautious evaluation is needed. Shale gas resources are potentially overestimated and it is uncertain to what extent they can be economically produced. The adverse environmental effects of ever more wells being drilled may lead to a fall in public acceptance and the strengthening of U.S. regulation. ...

Does State Antitrust Enforcement Drive Establishment Exit?

While studies have examined motivations for businesses to exit and relocate in response to tax and regulatory policies at the state level, no previous work has considered whether U.S. state antitrust enforcement may have similar effects. The results of this article suggest that state-level antitrust (even when coordinated with the federal government) plays a fairly minor role in the exit decision of ...

Turning back to Turkey - or Turning the Back on Germany? Remigration Intentions and Behavior of Turkish Immigrants in Germany between 1984 and 2011

Der Beitrag der Frage nach, wie sich die Remigrationsabsichten und das Remigrationsverhalten türkischstämmigerEinwanderer in Deutschland im Zeitverlauf verändert haben, und wertet dazu alle Erhebungswellen dessozio-çkonomischen Panels (SOEP) ereignisdatenanalytisch aus. Die Befunde zeigen, dass Remigrationsabsichten und-raten türkischstämmiger Einwanderer seit der Jahrtausendwende angestiegen sind, ...

A Global Perspective on the Future of Natural Gas: Resources, Trade, and Climate Constraints

Natural gas plays an important role in the global energy system as an input to power generation, heating, and industry. This article identifies key drivers and uncertainties for natural gas markets in the coming decades. These include the availability of natural gas from conventional and unconventional sources, the role of international trade, and the impact of climate policies. We build on model-based ...

Natural Gas: An Overview of a Lower-Carbon Transformation Fuel

This article provides an overview of the natural gas industry, which we view as a bridge fuel toward a lower-carbon energy system in many countries and regions around the world. Based on a review of the literature, an econometric analysis of natural gas prices and contracts, and the authors’ experience with the natural gas industry, this introductory article to the symposium on the Prospects for Natural ...

Removing Cross-Border Capacity Bottlenecks in the European Natural Gas Market: A Proposed Merchant-Regulatory Mechanism

We propose a merchant-regulatory framework to promote investment in the European natural gas network infrastructure based on a price cap over two-part tariffs. As suggested by Vogelsang (J Regul Econ 20:141–165, 2001) and Hogan et al. (J Regul Econ38:113–143, 2010), a profit maximizing network operator facing this regulatory constraint will intertemporally rebalance the variable and fixed part of its ...