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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Using a large panel of individual professionals' forecasts, this paper demonstrates that good exchange rate forecasts are related to a proper understanding of fundamentals, specifically good interest rate forecasts. This relationship is robust to individual fixed effects and further controls. Reassuringly, the relationship is stronger during phases when the impact from fundamentals is more obvious, ...
In:
Journal of International Money and Finance
53 (2015), S. 235-256
| Christian D. Dick, Ronald MacDonald, Lukas Menkhoff
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
We examine whether the experience of shocks influences individual risk attitude. We measure the risk attitude of more than 4,000 households in Thailand and Vietnam via a simple survey item. The experience of adverse shocks, which is typical for poor and vulnerable households, is related to a higher degree of risk aversion, even when controlled for a large set of socio-demographic variables. Therefore, ...
In:
World Development
71 (2015) S. 54-78
| Oliver Gloede, Lukas Menkhoff, Hermann Waibel
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper investigates the mechanisms behind the health effects of retirement. Using a Regression Discontinuity Design to exploit financial incentives in the German pension system for identification, I find that retirement improves subjective health status and mental health, while also reducing outpatient care utilization. I explore a wide range of health behaviors, time use, and effect heterogeneity ...
In:
Journal of Health Economics
43 (2015), S. 1-12
| Peter Eibich
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
When there are more than two parties, policy outcomes are typically the result of a bargaining process. We investigate whether changes in political power for various parties have an effect on tax policies. We use an instrumental variable approach where close elections provide the exogenous variation in our variable of interest: voting power. In order to isolate close elections in a proportional election ...
In:
European Economic Review
80 (2015), S. 310-328
| Ronny Freier, Christian Odendahl
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Pricing and selling strategies in the retail sector are hotly debated in policy circles. This article analyses the impact of sales below cost on the negotiation outcomes in intermediate goods markets. Assuming that consumers have a sufficiently strong preference for one-stop shopping, we model below-cost pricing as the result of a profit-maximising cross-subsidisation strategy of a multi-product retailer. ...
In:
European Review of Agricultural Economics
42 (2015), 2, S. 269-286
| Vanessa von Schlippenbach
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This study assesses whether the international monetary system is already tri-polar by testing what we call China's ‘dominance hypothesis’, i.e. whether the renminbi already influences exchange rate and monetary policies strongly in Asia, a direct reference to the old ‘German dominance hypothesis’ which ascribed to the German mark a dominant role in Europe in the 1980s. Using a global factor model of ...
In:
The Economic Journal
124 (2014), Iss. 581, S. 1343-1370
| Marcel Fratzscher, Arnaud Mehl
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Central banks regularly communicate about financial stability issues. This article asks how such communications affect financial markets, based on a unique dataset covering more than 1,000 releases of Financial Stability Reports (FSRs) and speeches by 37 central banks over the past 14 years. The findings suggest that optimistic FSRs lead to significant and potentially long-lasting positive abnormal ...
In:
The Economic Journal
124 (2014), 577, S. 701-734
| Benjamin Born, Michael Ehrmann, Marcel Fratzscher
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
This paper estimates the effect of involuntary job loss on smoking behaviour and body weight using German SOEP data. Baseline non-smokers are more likely to start smoking due to job loss, while smokers do not intensify smoking. In particular, single individuals and those with lower health or socioeconomic status prior to job loss exhibit high rates of smoking initiation. Job loss increases body weight ...
In:
Economica
81 (2014), 324, S. 626-648
| Jan Marcus
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Despite high economic growth during the past decades, China is still vulnerable to shocks arising from industrial states. The advanced economies strongly influence Chinese export performance, with subsequent effects on output growth. Using a production function, this article examines to which extent regional GDP growth in China is export driven. In a panel of 28 Chinese provinces, series are splitted ...
In:
Applied Economics
46 (2014), 35, S. 4302-4308
| Christian Dreger, Yanqun Zhang
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Referierte Aufsätze Web of Science
Expenditures devoted to research and development (R&D) are scarce and thus need to be used as efficiently as possible given the financial constraints countries are facing. This article assesses the relative efficiency of R&D expenditures for 26 OECD member countries and two nonmember countries. As countries differ in their national innovation systems and states of economic development and industrialization, ...
In:
Applied Economics
46 (2014), 30, S. 3750-3762
| Astrid Cullmann, Petra Zloczysti