Externe referierte Aufsätze

The Appropriateness of the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries

The European Commission’s Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances is a rare case of a publicly released early warning system. It was published first time in 2012 by the European Commission as a reaction to public debt crises in Europe. So far, the Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure takes a one-size-fits-all approach with regard to the identification of thresholds. The experience of Central and Eastern ...

Inflation Expectations and the Recovery from the Great Depression in Germany

A regime shift toward increased inflation expectations is credited with jump-starting the recov- ery from the Great Depression in the United States. What role did inflation expectations play in Germany that experienced a similarly successful economic upturn in the 1930s? We study infla- tion expectations in the German recovery across several methods: we conduct a narrative study of media sources; we estimate ...

Solar PV Generation in Colombia - a Qualitative and Quantitative Approach to Analyze the Potential of Solar Energy Market

Colombia faces several challenges to secure a reliable, affordable, and climate-friendly energy supply. Persistently low reserve-to-production ratios in oil and gas, together with advancing climate change, are putting the country’s energy system at risk. Heavily relying on hydro-power, Colombia’s electricity system will become more vulnerable with extreme weather patterns such as El Niño. This paper ...

Unconventional Monetary Policy, Fiscal Side Effects, and Euro Area (Im)balances

We study the macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy in the euro area using structural vector autoregressions, identified with external instruments. The instruments are based on the common unexpected variation in euro area sovereign yields for different maturities on policy announcement days. We first show that expansionary monetary surprises are effective at lowering public and private ...

Konvergencija regional'noj plotnosti naselenija v Rossii za 120 let

A relative uniformity of population distribution on the territory of the country is of importance from socio-economic and strategic perspectives. It is especially important in the case of Russia with its densely populated West and underpopulated East. This paper considers changes in population density in Russian regions, which occurred between 1897 and 2017. It explores whether there was convergence ...

Bedingungsloses Grundeinkommen: viel Zustimmung, aber auch große Ablehnung

Unconditional basic income has been discussed for many years. It is intended to solve problems that may arise as a result of demographic change, digitalisation and automation. Very different concepts form the basis for the discussion. For example, it is not clear what level such a basic income should have, which social benefits it would replace and, above all, how it would to be financed. It was originally ...

Do Laws Shape Attitudes? Evidence from Same-Sex Relationship Recognition Policies in Europe

Understanding whether laws shape or simply reflect citizens’ attitudes is important but empirically difficult. We provide new evidence on this question by studying the relation between legal same-sex relationship recognition policies (SSRRPs) and attitudes toward sexual minorities in Europe. Using data from the European Social Surveys covering 2002–2016 and exploiting variation in the timing of SSRRPs ...

Diversification, Common Ownership, and Strategic Incentives

We argue that within-industry investor diversification is directly related to common ownership incentives (profit loads on rival firms by the manager of a firm) in product markets. Because of their respective investment strategies, passive investors are naturally more diversified than active investors. If more money flows from active toward passive investors, then common ownership incentives increase. ...

Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights

We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature, ...

Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD

The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and need for sector coupling. This paper therefore showcases ...

Energy Transition Pathways to a Low-carbon Europe in 2050: the Degree of Cooperation and the Level of Decentralization

In the framework of the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) will have to firmly set decarbonization targets to 2050. However, the viability on these targets is an ongoing discussion. The European Commission has made several propositions for energy and climate “roadmaps”. In this regard, this paper contributes by analyzing alternative pathways derived in a unique modelling process. As part of the ...

Was die Wirtschaftspolitik vom Wirtschaftsnobelpreis des Jahres 2019 lernen kann

Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo und Michael Kremer sind 2019 mit dem Wirtschaftsnobelpreis geehrt worden. Dies vor allem für ihren experimentellen Ansatz zur Linderung der weltweiten Armut. Die Laureaten nutzen randomisierte Experimente, um entwicklungspolitische Maßnahmen zu evaluieren. So haben sie die Grenzen der in Indien genutzten Mikrofinanzierung aufgezeigt. Zwar gibt es durchaus Kritik an dieser ...

Über die Ursachen und das mögliche Ende der niedrigen Zinsen in Deutschland

Gestaltende Technologiepolitik als Kern moderner Industriepolitik

Job Displacement, Family Dynamics and Spousal Labor Supply

We study the effectiveness of intrahousehold insurance among married couples when the husband loses his job due to a mass layoff or plant closure. Empirical results based on Austrian administrative data show that husbands suffer persistent employment and earnings losses, while wives' labor supply increases moderately due to extensive margin responses. Wives' earnings gains recover only a tiny fraction ...

Grundrentenplan der großen Koalition: Welche Risiken soll die gesetzliche Rentenversicherung versichern?

Unabhängig davon, ob der Grundrenten-Beschluss der Koalitionsparteien tatsächlich umgesetzt wird, ist er von Interesse, da die Diskussion über die noch offene Finanzierung der geplanten Grundrente auf die grundsätzliche Frage verweist, welche Risiken die Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung eigentlich versichert. Es gibt Argumente dafür, dass die konventionelle Sichtweise auf die versicherten Risiken abgelöst ...

The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Working Hours

The present paper analyzes how the statutory minimum wage introduced on January 1, 2015, has affected working hours in Germany up to 2016. The data used come from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), which provides not only contractual working hours but also actual hours worked. Using a difference-in-differences estimation approach, we find a significant and robust reduction in contractual working hours ...

Identifying Robust Correlates of Risk Preference: A Systematic Approach Using Specification Curve Analysis

People’s risk preferences are thought to be central to many consequential real-life decisions, making it important to identify robust correlates of this construct. Various psychological theories have put forth a series of candidate correlates, yet the strength and robustness of their associations remain unclear because of disparate operationalizations of risk preference and analytic limitations in ...

Take Your Time to Grow: A Field Experiment on the Hiring of Youths

We investigate the effect of spells of no formal employment of young Germans on their chances of entering the labor market through an apprenticeship. We also study whether the potential negative effects of such spells can be mitigated by publicly provided training measures. In a field experiment, the fictitious applications of three young women were sent to firms advertising apprenticeships for the ...

The Impact of ECB Policy on Structural Reforms

We estimate the impact of monetary policy on structural reform adoption in the euro area. We identify exogenous ECB policy changes through an event study that extracts the unexpected variation in euro area interest rates on policy announcement days. We find that surprise monetary expansions increase the number of reforms significantly and that the effect is stronger for countries with weaker macroeconomic ...