Thema Konjunktur

Herbstgrundlinien 2013

Die deutsche Wirtschaft folgt einem moderaten Aufwärtstrend. Zwar war die wirtschaftliche Dynamik im zweiten Quartal hoch, diese Entwicklung dürfte aber durch Sondereffekte überzeichnet sein. Im weiteren Verlauf wird die Produktion dann stetig zunehmen; 2014 liegt das Wachstum bei 1,7 Prozent, nach 0,4 Prozent in diesem Jahr. Nach einem schwachen Jahresauftakt hat die Weltwirtschaft im zweiten Quartal ...

Moderater Aufwärtstrend der deutschen Wirtschaft - starke Konsumnachfrage: Sieben Fragen an Ferdinand Fichtner

Analysis of Investments in Electricity Markets: Dissertation

The ongoing structural transformation of power systems calls for a fundamental overhaul of electricity infrastructure throughout all system components, be it power plants, grids, load management technologies, storage systems or other elements. In the light of the massive changes that the system is likely to undergo within the decades following 2012, it is interesting to study the drivers of investment ...

Tax Policy and Firms' Financing and Investment Decision: Dissertation

Hauptaugenmerk dieser Arbeit liegt auf dem Einfluss der Besteuerung auf die Finanzierungsstruktur und Investitionen von Unternehmen. Die Relevanz dieser Thematik wurde als erstes von Modigliani und Miller (1958) herausgestellt. Sie haben gezeigt, dass Investitions- und Finanzierungsentscheidungen von Unternehmen nur bei vollkommenen Märkten voneinander unabhängig sind. Es ist daher von großem Interesse, ...

Spatial Dependence and Spatial Heterogeneity in the Analysis of Regional Economic Performance and House Price Developments: Dissertation

When analyzing economic aspects at regional levels, the spatial dimension of the data plays a crucial role. This is the case as spatial data and models are often characterized by two spatial effects, namely spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. The field of spatial econometrics is a separate field in econometrics that explicitly incorporates these spatial effects into econometric models. Following ...

A Further Examination of the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis

This article challenges the common view that exports generally contribute more to GDP growth than a pure change in export volume, as the export-led growth hypothesis predicts. Applying panel cointegration techniques to a production function with non-export GDP as the dependent variable, we find for a sample of 45 developing countries that: (i) exports have a positive short-run effect on non-export ...

Forecasting Private Consumption by Consumer Surveys

Survey-based indicators are widely seen as leading indicators for economic activity. As such, consumer confidence might be informative for the future path of private consumption. Although the indicators receive high attention in the media, their forecasting power often appears to be very limited. This paper takes a fresh look at the data that serve as a basis for the consumer confidence indicator (CCI) ...

Konjunktur zieht an - Haushaltsüberschüsse sinnvoll nutzen: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Herbst 2013 ; Dienstleistungsauftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Technologie

Stock Investments for Old-Age: Less Return, More Risk, and Unexpected Timing

Returns merely based on one purchasing price of an asset are uninformative for people regularly contributing to their old-age provision. Here, each purchase has an influence on the outcome. Still, they are commonly used in finance literature, giving an overly optimistic view of expected long-term stock market returns and risks. Moreover, around business cycle turning points when volatility is high, ...

Self-Reported Satisfaction and the Economic Crisis of 2007-10: Or How People in the UK and Germany Perceive a Severe Cyclical Downturn

Self-reported satisfaction measures respond to a great variety of socio-demographic characteristics as well as the job and living environment. In this paper we ask whether the recent financial market crisis has caused a deterioration of satisfaction not only for the unemployed but also for those out of the labour force and especially those in employment. The focus of our analyses is on the pattern ...